American Airlines (Brazil) Market Value
| AALL34 Stock | BRL 91.00 5.62 6.58% |
| Symbol | American |
American Airlines 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Airlines' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Airlines.
| 06/01/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Airlines on June 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Airlines Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Airlines over 180 days. American Airlines is related to or competes with Fidelity National, Home Depot, Paycom Software, NXP Semiconductors, Salesforce, and Metalurgica Gerdau. American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier More
American Airlines Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Airlines' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Airlines Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2135 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.1 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.96 |
American Airlines Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Airlines' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Airlines' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Airlines historical prices to predict the future American Airlines' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2096 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6398 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2701 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2832 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 220.73 |
American Airlines Backtested Returns
American Airlines appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. American Airlines secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.28, which signifies that the company had a 0.28% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. By analyzing American Airlines' technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.71% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of American Airlines' risk adjusted performance of 0.2096, and Mean Deviation of 1.93 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, American Airlines holds a performance score of 21. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0029, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, American Airlines' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American Airlines is expected to be smaller as well. Please check American Airlines' mean deviation, downside deviation, standard deviation, as well as the relationship between the semi deviation and coefficient of variation , to make a quick decision on whether American Airlines' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.79 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
American Airlines Group has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Airlines time series from 1st of June 2024 to 30th of August 2024 and 30th of August 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Airlines price movement. The serial correlation of -0.79 indicates that around 79.0% of current American Airlines price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.79 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.78 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 89.45 |
American Airlines lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Airlines stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Airlines' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Airlines returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Airlines has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Airlines regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Airlines stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Airlines stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Airlines stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Airlines Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Airlines' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Airlines stock have on its future price. American Airlines autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Airlines autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Airlines stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Airlines Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in American Stock
When determining whether American Airlines is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Volatility and American Airlines Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Airlines. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
American Airlines technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.