National Vision (Germany) Market Value
| 7NV Stock | 10.70 0.10 0.93% |
| Symbol | National |
National Vision 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to National Vision's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of National Vision.
| 12/25/2024 |
| 01/24/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in National Vision on December 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding National Vision Holdings or generate 0.0% return on investment in National Vision over 30 days. National Vision is related to or competes with Minerals Technologies, PENN NATL, TROPHY GAMES, and Allegheny Technologies. More
National Vision Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure National Vision's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess National Vision Holdings upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.69 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0742 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.61 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.60) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.81 |
National Vision Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for National Vision's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as National Vision's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use National Vision historical prices to predict the future National Vision's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0853 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1966 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1166 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0734 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2297 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Vision's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Vision Holdings Backtested Returns
National Vision appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. National Vision Holdings has Sharpe Ratio of 0.11, which conveys that the firm had a 0.11 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for National Vision, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise National Vision's Mean Deviation of 1.95, risk adjusted performance of 0.0853, and Downside Deviation of 2.69 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, National Vision holds a performance score of 8. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.03, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. National Vision returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, National Vision is expected to follow. Please check National Vision's sortino ratio, skewness, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether National Vision's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.53 |
Modest predictability
National Vision Holdings has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between National Vision time series from 25th of December 2024 to 9th of January 2025 and 9th of January 2025 to 24th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of National Vision Holdings price movement. The serial correlation of 0.53 indicates that about 53.0% of current National Vision price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.53 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.76 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
National Vision Holdings lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is National Vision stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting National Vision's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of National Vision returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that National Vision has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
National Vision regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If National Vision stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if National Vision stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in National Vision stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
National Vision Lagged Returns
When evaluating National Vision's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of National Vision stock have on its future price. National Vision autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, National Vision autocorrelation shows the relationship between National Vision stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in National Vision Holdings.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for National Stock Analysis
When running National Vision's price analysis, check to measure National Vision's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Vision is operating at the current time. Most of National Vision's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Vision's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Vision's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Vision to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.