Alfen NV (Germany) Market Value
| 703 Stock | EUR 11.63 0.01 0.09% |
| Symbol | Alfen |
Alfen NV 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alfen NV's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alfen NV.
| 12/07/2023 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alfen NV on December 7, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alfen NV or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alfen NV over 360 days. Alfen NV is related to or competes with Lendlease, Evolution Mining, ADRIATIC METALS, Harmony Gold, Jacquet Metal, Sixt Leasing, and LION ONE. Alfen N.V., through its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, develops, produces, and sells products, systems, and services ... More
Alfen NV Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alfen NV's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alfen NV upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.61 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.60) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.58 |
Alfen NV Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alfen NV's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alfen NV's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alfen NV historical prices to predict the future Alfen NV's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.38) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.85) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.81) |
Alfen NV Backtested Returns
Alfen NV secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.1, which signifies that the company had a -0.1% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Alfen NV exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Alfen NV's mean deviation of 2.28, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.08) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.19, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Alfen NV's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Alfen NV is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Alfen NV has a negative expected return of -0.3%. Please make sure to confirm Alfen NV's coefficient of variation, variance, and the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Alfen NV performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.51 |
Modest predictability
Alfen NV has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alfen NV time series from 7th of December 2023 to 4th of June 2024 and 4th of June 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alfen NV price movement. The serial correlation of 0.51 indicates that about 51.0% of current Alfen NV price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.51 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.76 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 49.37 |
Alfen NV lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alfen NV stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alfen NV's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alfen NV returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alfen NV has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alfen NV regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alfen NV stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alfen NV stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alfen NV stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alfen NV Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alfen NV's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alfen NV stock have on its future price. Alfen NV autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alfen NV autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alfen NV stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alfen NV.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Alfen Stock
Alfen NV financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alfen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alfen with respect to the benefits of owning Alfen NV security.