China Citic (China) Market Value
| 601998 Stock | 7.30 0.03 0.41% |
| Symbol | China |
China Citic 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to China Citic's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of China Citic.
| 12/19/2024 |
| 03/19/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in China Citic on December 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding China Citic Bank or generate 0.0% return on investment in China Citic over 90 days. China Citic is related to or competes with Heilongjiang Transport, Metro Investment, Hubeiyichang Transportation, Henan Shuanghui, Jiangsu Jinling, Postal Savings, and Luyin Investment. More
China Citic Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure China Citic's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess China Citic Bank upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1792 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.65 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.78) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.79 |
China Citic Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for China Citic's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as China Citic's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use China Citic historical prices to predict the future China Citic's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1004 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1471 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2697 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.194 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7482 |
China Citic Bank Backtested Returns
At this point, China Citic is not too volatile. China Citic Bank secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.11, which signifies that the company had a 0.11 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for China Citic Bank, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm China Citic's Mean Deviation of 0.9975, risk adjusted performance of 0.1004, and Downside Deviation of 1.17 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. China Citic has a performance score of 8 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.17, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, China Citic's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding China Citic is expected to be smaller as well. China Citic Bank right now shows a risk of 1.27%. Please confirm China Citic Bank downside deviation, standard deviation, and the relationship between the semi deviation and coefficient of variation , to decide if China Citic Bank will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.83 |
Excellent reverse predictability
China Citic Bank has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between China Citic time series from 19th of December 2024 to 2nd of February 2025 and 2nd of February 2025 to 19th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of China Citic Bank price movement. The serial correlation of -0.83 indicates that around 83.0% of current China Citic price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.83 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.69 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.06 |
China Citic Bank lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is China Citic stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting China Citic's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of China Citic returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that China Citic has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
China Citic regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If China Citic stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if China Citic stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in China Citic stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
China Citic Lagged Returns
When evaluating China Citic's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of China Citic stock have on its future price. China Citic autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, China Citic autocorrelation shows the relationship between China Citic stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in China Citic Bank.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in China Stock
China Citic financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Citic security.