Tonghua Grape (China) Market Value
| 600365 Stock | 2.78 0.02 0.71% |
| Symbol | Tonghua |
Tonghua Grape 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tonghua Grape's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tonghua Grape.
| 12/19/2024 |
| 03/19/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Tonghua Grape on December 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Tonghua Grape Wine or generate 0.0% return on investment in Tonghua Grape over 90 days. Tonghua Grape is related to or competes with Ningxia Xiaoming, Shenzhen Centralcon, Guangzhou KDT, Kunwu Jiuding, Lutian Machinery, Huawen Media, and Beijing Mainstreets. Tonghua Grape is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
Tonghua Grape Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tonghua Grape's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tonghua Grape Wine upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.73 |
Tonghua Grape Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tonghua Grape's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tonghua Grape's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tonghua Grape historical prices to predict the future Tonghua Grape's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.1) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1113 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.06) |
Tonghua Grape Wine Backtested Returns
Tonghua Grape Wine owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0493, which indicates the firm had a -0.0493 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Tonghua Grape Wine exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Tonghua Grape's Variance of 4.03, risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Coefficient Of Variation of (2,013) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.1, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Tonghua Grape's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Tonghua Grape is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Tonghua Grape Wine has a negative expected return of -0.0964%. Please make sure to validate Tonghua Grape's standard deviation, total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and treynor ratio , to decide if Tonghua Grape Wine performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.6 |
Good reverse predictability
Tonghua Grape Wine has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tonghua Grape time series from 19th of December 2024 to 2nd of February 2025 and 2nd of February 2025 to 19th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tonghua Grape Wine price movement. The serial correlation of -0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current Tonghua Grape price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.6 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.57 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Tonghua Grape Wine lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tonghua Grape stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tonghua Grape's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tonghua Grape returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tonghua Grape has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tonghua Grape regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tonghua Grape stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tonghua Grape stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tonghua Grape stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tonghua Grape Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tonghua Grape's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tonghua Grape stock have on its future price. Tonghua Grape autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tonghua Grape autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tonghua Grape stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tonghua Grape Wine.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Tonghua Stock
Tonghua Grape financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tonghua Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tonghua with respect to the benefits of owning Tonghua Grape security.