Tonghua Grape (China) Market Value
| 600365 Stock | 3.04 0.13 4.47% |
| Symbol | Tonghua |
Tonghua Grape 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tonghua Grape's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tonghua Grape.
| 12/13/2022 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Tonghua Grape on December 13, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Tonghua Grape Wine or generate 0.0% return on investment in Tonghua Grape over 720 days. Tonghua Grape is related to or competes with Beijing Wantai, Aluminum Corp, COL Digital, Shaanxi Meineng, Gansu Huangtai, and Threes Company. Tonghua Grape is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
Tonghua Grape Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tonghua Grape's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tonghua Grape Wine upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.86 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1037 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.26 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.90) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.96 |
Tonghua Grape Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tonghua Grape's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tonghua Grape's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tonghua Grape historical prices to predict the future Tonghua Grape's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1251 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4414 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0989 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.68) |
Tonghua Grape Wine Backtested Returns
Tonghua Grape appears to be unstable, given 3 months investment horizon. Tonghua Grape Wine owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0952, which indicates the firm had a 0.0952% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Tonghua Grape Wine, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Tonghua Grape's Coefficient Of Variation of 648.34, risk adjusted performance of 0.1251, and Semi Deviation of 2.28 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Tonghua Grape holds a performance score of 7. The entity has a beta of -0.24, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Tonghua Grape are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Tonghua Grape is likely to outperform the market. Please check Tonghua Grape's information ratio, total risk alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Tonghua Grape's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.35 |
Below average predictability
Tonghua Grape Wine has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tonghua Grape time series from 13th of December 2022 to 8th of December 2023 and 8th of December 2023 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tonghua Grape Wine price movement. The serial correlation of 0.35 indicates that nearly 35.0% of current Tonghua Grape price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.35 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.16 |
Tonghua Grape Wine lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tonghua Grape stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tonghua Grape's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tonghua Grape returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tonghua Grape has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tonghua Grape regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tonghua Grape stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tonghua Grape stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tonghua Grape stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tonghua Grape Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tonghua Grape's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tonghua Grape stock have on its future price. Tonghua Grape autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tonghua Grape autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tonghua Grape stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tonghua Grape Wine.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Tonghua Stock
Tonghua Grape financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tonghua Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tonghua with respect to the benefits of owning Tonghua Grape security.