Guidewire Software (Germany) Market Value
| 0GS Stock | 190.25 3.80 1.96% |
| Symbol | Guidewire |
Guidewire Software 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guidewire Software's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guidewire Software.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guidewire Software on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guidewire Software or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guidewire Software over 30 days. Guidewire Software is related to or competes with United Utilities, Boston Beer, Monster Beverage, China Resources, XLMedia PLC, Tencent Music, and Corporate Office. More
Guidewire Software Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guidewire Software's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guidewire Software upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2579 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.96 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.65) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.54 |
Guidewire Software Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guidewire Software's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guidewire Software's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guidewire Software historical prices to predict the future Guidewire Software's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2595 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4859 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2982 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.4366 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.9306 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guidewire Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guidewire Software Backtested Returns
Guidewire Software appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Guidewire Software holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.35, which attests that the entity had a 0.35% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By evaluating Guidewire Software's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.59% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Guidewire Software's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.9406, downside deviation of 1.01, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2595 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Guidewire Software holds a performance score of 27. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.6, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Guidewire Software's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Guidewire Software is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Guidewire Software's sortino ratio, semi variance, and the relationship between the standard deviation and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether Guidewire Software's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.84 |
Very good predictability
Guidewire Software has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guidewire Software time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guidewire Software price movement. The serial correlation of 0.84 indicates that around 84.0% of current Guidewire Software price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.84 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.7 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 19.9 |
Guidewire Software lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guidewire Software stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guidewire Software's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guidewire Software returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guidewire Software has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guidewire Software regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guidewire Software stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guidewire Software stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guidewire Software stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guidewire Software Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guidewire Software's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guidewire Software stock have on its future price. Guidewire Software autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guidewire Software autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guidewire Software stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guidewire Software.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Guidewire Stock Analysis
When running Guidewire Software's price analysis, check to measure Guidewire Software's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guidewire Software is operating at the current time. Most of Guidewire Software's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guidewire Software's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guidewire Software's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guidewire Software to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.