Vanguard Health is up 0.69
 | By Ellen Johnson | Macroaxis Story |
Today article will break down Vanguard Health. I will inspect if investors should continue to be optimistic for the fund outlook. The firm current probability of bankruptcy is under 1.0 percent. What is Vanguard Health Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price? Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Health to move above current price in 30 days from now is under 4%. The Vanguard Health Care Index Admiral probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Health Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days . Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Vanguard Health has beta of 0.8434 . This entails as returns on market go up, Vanguard Health average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Vanguard Health Care Index Admiral will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally, the company has an alpha of 0.0272 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0272% excess return over S&P 500 after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin
Vanguard Health has beta of 0.0. The returns on MARKET and Vanguard Health are completely uncorrelated. The entity dividends can provide a clue to current valuation of the fund. Vanguard Health Care one year expected dividend income is about $0.38 per share.
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Health Care. Regardless of method or technology, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Predictive Modules for Vanguard Health
Instrument Allocation
The asset allocation of funds such as Vanguard Health usually varies among a different mix of asset classes. Balanced mutual funds invest not only in bonds, which focus primarily on income, and stocks, which aim for investment growth, but also keep some reserve in cash or even exotic instruments. Below we show the current asset allocation of Vanguard Health Care
DetailsBreaking down the case for Vanguard Health
The modest gains experienced by current holders of Vanguard Health Care may raise some interest from investors as it closed today at a share price of 87.7 on 1.000 in trading volume. The fund managers have been quite successful with maneuvering the fund at opportune times to take advantage of all market conditions in June. The fund standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 0.7417. The very small Fund volatility is a good signal to investors with longer term investment horizons. Vanguard Health is selling at 88.51. That is 0.69 percent up. Day high is 89.32. To conclude, our ongoing buy/sell advice on the fund is Buy. We believe Vanguard Health is fairly valued with very small probability of distress for the next two years.
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This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Vanguard Health Care. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.