Will UBS ETRACS spontaneously come back?
 | By Rifka Kats | Macroaxis Story |
This post will focus on UBS ETRACS. I will evaluate if UBS ETRACS shares are reasonably priced going into March. UBS ETRACS CMCI chance of financial distress is under 54.00 % . Considering 30-days investment horizon, UBS ETRACS is expected to generate 0.79 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 1.27 times less risky than the market. It trades about 0.2 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The market is currently generating roughly 0.02 per unit of risk. Macroaxis considers UBS ETRACS not too volatile given 1 month investment horizon. UBS ETRACS CMCI owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e. Sharpe Ratio) of 0.2034 which indicates the etf had 0.2034% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 1 month. Our approach into measuring volatility of an etf is to use all available market data together with etf specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for UBS ETRACS CMCI Silver Total Return ETN which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the entity. Please operate UBS ETRACS Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.3282, Downside Deviation of 1.27 and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 13.96 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin
The entity dividends can provide a clue to current valuation of the etf. UBS ETRACS CMCI is not expected to issue dividends this year as it trying to preserve or re-invest any of the funds available for distribution to stakeholders. Now, lets check UBS ETRACS One Year Return. Based on recorded statements UBS ETRACS CMCI Silver Total Return ETN has One Year Return of -11.21%. This is 501.79% lower than that of the UBS Group AG family, and 170.09% lower than that of Commodities Precious Metals category, The One Year Return for all etfs is 796.8% higher than the company.
Another Deeper Perspective
The latest bullish price patterns experienced by current UBS ETRACS shareholders has created some momentum for investors as it was traded today as low as 19.63 and as high as 20.25 per share. The ETF money managers have been very successful with rebalancing the entity components at opportune times to take advantage of market volatility in January. The etf standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 1.4592. The below-average Etf volatility is a good sign for a longer term investment options and for buy-and-hold investors. UBS ETRACS preserves 3.89m of net asset. UBS ETRACS is selling for 20.17. This is 0.50 percent up. Today highest was 20.25. Taking everything into account, our overall buy-hold-sell recommendation on the fund venture is Strong Buy. UBS ETRACS is currently undervalued with about average probability of distress for the next two years.
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