Are Revolution (USA Stocks:RVMD) shareholders starting to hold back?

Over 98.0% of Revolution Medicines shares are held by institutional investors. The institutional ownership of Revolution Medicines represents the proportion of equity owned by large financial organizations such as mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, investment firms, foundations, and other entities that manage funds on behalf of others. For our latest analysis of Revolution Medicines, including its current ownership structure, please visit our website.

Progressive assessment

Investors looking at Revolution Medicines (USA Stocks: RVMD) should consider the stock's volatility as measured by its Coefficient Of Variation, which stands at a high 592.05. This suggests that the stock's returns are highly dispersed around the mean, indicating a higher degree of risk. However, the Jensen Alpha of 0.5419 suggests that the stock has been generating excess returns over and above those predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), after adjusting for risk. The stock's Total Risk Alpha of 0.3275 also suggests that the stock has been generating excess returns after adjusting for its total risk, including both systematic and unsystematic risk. This is a positive sign for potential investors as it indicates that the stock's returns have been compensating for its risk. However, investors should also consider the company's financial health. The company is expected to report a loss of 3.46 per share for the current year, which could be a concern for potential investors. The company's high concentration in the Biotechnology industry could also be a risk factor, as it could make the company's earnings more susceptible to industry-specific risks. Despite these risks, the stock's 200 Day Moving Average of 23.9774 suggests that the stock has been in an uptrend over the long term, which could be a positive sign for potential investors. The stock's open price of 31.5 is also above its 52 Week Low of 17.03, indicating that the stock has been performing well over the past year. In conclusion, while Revolution Medicines does have some risk factors, its positive risk-adjusted performance and long-term uptrend could make it a potential breakout candidate for investors. However, potential investors should also consider the company's expected loss for the current year and its high concentration in the Biotechnology industry before making an investment decision.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Ellen Johnson

In the world of biotechnology stocks, Revolution Medicines (USA Stocks: RVMD) has been garnering attention from investors. With a market valuation of $32.78 billion and a hype value of $32.55 billion, the company is making waves in the industry. Despite a loss of $3.61 per share estimated for the next year, the company's potential for growth cannot be ignored. The stock has shown significant volatility with a beta of 1.4377, and has traded between a 52-week low of $17.03 and a 52-week high of $32.88. The stock's 50-day moving average stands at $26.11, while the 200-day moving average is $23.98, indicating a positive trend. Short interest in the company is notable, with 11.7 million shares short as of the prior month, representing 11.72% of the company's shares. This suggests that some investors are betting against the stock, but it could also lead to a short squeeze, potentially driving the stock's price higher. Analysts are largely bullish on Revolution Medicines, with 7 strong buy recommendations, 1 buy recommendation, and 2 hold recommendations. The consensus analyst target price is estimated at $31.44, with a possible upside price of $37.49 and a possible downside price of $30.68. The naive expected forecast value for the stock is $34.08, suggesting that there is potential for price appreciation. Investors should note that the company's fiscal year ends in December, and the next earnings report could provide further insights into the company's financial health and growth prospects. As of the latest update on August 2, 2023, the company's real value is estimated at $29. Given these factors, Revolution Medicines could be poised for a breakout. However, potential investors should carefully consider the company's financials, industry trends, and market conditions before making an investment decision. The projected Book Value per Share of Revolution Medicines is expected to see a significant increase, based on the reporting trends of the past few years. The Book Value per Share for the previous year stood at 8.50. For the current year, the Debt to Equity Ratio is anticipated to rise to 0.20. However, the Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) are predicted to decrease to (245.8 M). The primary aim of this analysis is to provide a comprehensive forecast of Revolution Medicines for its shareholders. We will attempt to predict the outlook of Revolution Medicines for September.
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Revolution Medicines. Regardless of method or technology, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Predictive Modules for Revolution Medicines


How important is Revolution Medicines's Liquidity

Revolution Medicines financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Revolution Medicines ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Revolution Medicines financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Revolution Medicines' owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Revolution Medicines' financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Revolution Medicines's total debt and its cash.

Revolution Medicines Gross Profit

Revolution Medicines Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Revolution Medicines previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Revolution Medicines Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Revolution Medicines' gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Breaking it down

The latest price surge of Revolution Medicines created some momentum for shareholders as it was traded today as low as 31.1 and as high as 32.88 per share. The company management teams may have good odds in positioning the company resources to exploit market volatility in September. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 3.4. The above-average risk is mostly attributed to market volatility and speculations regarding some of the upcoming earning calls from Revolution Medicines partners.

Returns Breakdown

Return on Assets(0.36)
Return on Equity(0.42)
Return Capital(0.49)
Return on Sales(7.23)
Revolution Medicines (RVMD) is a promising player in the biotechnology industry, currently valued at a substantial 1.94B. With a robust total asset of 811.93M, including cash and equivalents of 461.43M, and a healthy current ratio of 7.60X, the company's financial health appears solid. Despite a notable total debt of 64.2M, the debt-to-equity ratio is a mere 0.13%, indicating a manageable debt level. The stock's current market capitalization stands at 3.35B with a Wall Street target price of 30.88, suggesting potential upside for investors.
However, with a 52-week low of 17.03 and high of 32.88, volatility is evident. The company's standard deviation of 3.29 and downside deviation of 2.32 further indicate this risk. The company's shares are heavily held by institutions, with 98.22% of shares owned by them. However, short interest is also significant, with 11.7M shares short. Despite a negative return on equity and assets, indicating losses, the company's Z score of 30 suggests low bankruptcy risk. As of August 2023, the company employs 259 individuals. Potential investors should weigh these factors against the company's potential for growth in the biotechnology sector. .

Revolution Medicines implied volatility may change after the surge

Recently, Revolution Medicines' stock has displayed some intriguing dynamics, as indicated by the information ratio falling to 0.15. This significant decrease may hint at an impending dip in volatility, which could result in changes to the stock's implied volatility. Following the recent surge, investors and traders should keep a close eye on the situation for potential strategy adjustments. This might present an opportunity for risk-averse investors to enter the market, or for current investors to reposition their portfolios. At present, Revolution Medicines exhibits a below-average downside deviation. It has an Information Ratio of 0.15 and a Jensen Alpha of 0.54. However, we advise investors to further scrutinize Revolution Medicines' expected returns to ensure all indicators align with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends can often assist investors in timing the market. Proper use of volatility indicators allows traders to gauge Revolution Medicines' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends.
The increased level of volatility that accompanies bear markets can directly affect Revolution Medicines' stock price, adding stress to investors as they watch the value of their shares decrease. This typically compels investors to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing different stocks as prices drop. In conclusion, despite a modest market dip, Revolution Medicines (RVMD) continues to show promising growth with an ascent of over 4 percent. With an Analyst Overall Consensus leaning towards 'Buy', and a substantial number of 7 out of 9 analysts giving a 'Strong Buy' recommendation, the stock appears to have a solid backing. The Analyst Target Price Estimated Value stands at $31.44, with a possible upside reaching as high as $37.49. However, investors should also consider the potential downside price of $30.68. The stock's current Valuation Market Value is $32.78, slightly above its Valuation Real Value of $29. This suggests that the stock may be slightly overvalued, but given the strong analyst support and the company's performance, Revolution Medicines remains a compelling investment opportunity. .

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Editorial Staff

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