Breaking up ESSA Pharma (USA Stocks:EPIX) risk factors?

Risk and reward are two sides of the same coin, especially when it comes to investing in the volatile world of biotech stocks like ESSA Pharma. As a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, ESSA Pharma, traded under the ticker EPIX on NASDAQ, is making strides in developing treatments for prostate cancer. Yet, its journey is not without bumps. With a daily balance of power at -0.2, indicating a bearish sentiment, and a period momentum indicator slightly negative at -0.01, the stock exhibits signs of volatility that savvy investors should consider. Analysts have set a wide range of target prices, with the lowest at $17.65 and the highest reaching $21.53, reflecting differing views on the company's potential. The current valuation market value stands at $1.7, suggesting room for growth but also highlighting the inherent risks. Understanding these factors is crucial for those looking to navigate the complexities of investing in ESSA Pharma. ESSA Pharma is anticipated to lag behind the market over the next 60 days. It's significantly more volatile than its market benchmark, by about 13.83 times. For every unit of risk, it offers a return of -0.12, compared to the Dow Jones Industrial's 0.18 per unit. While some investors might overanalyze the biotech sector, it's important to focus on the essentials with ESSA Pharma. As of January, what should shareholders expect? Despite its current risk factors, we believe ESSA Pharma is undervalued, with an estimated real value nearing $6.11 per share.
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Reviewed by Ellen Johnson

ESSA Pharma's stock, trading at a last price of 1.7, exhibits notable volatility, with a standard deviation of 10.19, indicating potential price swings that might intrigue risk-tolerant investors. The high kurtosis value of 39.91 suggests that while there are frequent small fluctuations, there might also be occasional sharp movements, which savvy investors should consider when assessing risk and potential reward.

Top Findings

ESSA Pharma has $80.33K in liabilities and a Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.0, indicating it's not heavily leveraging debt for growth. Its current ratio stands at 42.56, suggesting strong liquidity to meet financial obligations. When evaluating ESSA Pharma's debt, it's essential to consider its cash and equity position. The stock has a Beta of -0.11, implying minimal volatility compared to the market. As market returns rise, ESSA Pharma's returns are expected to decline more slowly, potentially outperforming during a bear market. Currently, it has a negative expected return of -1.25%. It's advisable to check ESSA Pharma's Jensen Alpha and accumulation distribution metrics to assess if past performance trends might continue.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of ESSA Pharma or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of ESSA Pharma may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to ESSA's beta indicator, it measures the risk of ESSA Pharma and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of ESSA Pharma fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is ESSA Pharma's Liquidity

ESSA Pharma financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance ESSA Pharma ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. ESSA Pharma financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to ESSA Pharma's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of ESSA Pharma's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between ESSA Pharma's total debt and its cash.

ESSA Pharma Gross Profit

ESSA Pharma Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing ESSA Pharma previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show ESSA Pharma Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check ESSA Pharma's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

ESSA Pharma Volatility Drivers

ESSA Pharma unsystematic risk is unique to ESSA Pharma and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in ESSA Pharma you can also buy Spero Therapeutics. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the health care sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing ESSA Pharma important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in ESSA Pharma income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about ESSA volatility.
-0.89-0.040.970.96-0.9-0.95-0.65-0.15-0.15-0.40.370.250.69-0.160.290.630.62-0.860.35
-0.890.01-0.86-0.840.830.860.610.140.140.41-0.35-0.13-0.550.09-0.36-0.6-0.70.81-0.37
-0.040.01-0.01-0.090.09-0.10.3-0.75-0.75-0.060.470.63-0.230.19-0.69-0.2-0.2-0.01-0.31
0.97-0.86-0.010.97-0.88-0.92-0.59-0.12-0.12-0.540.380.170.58-0.130.290.530.53-0.840.34
0.96-0.84-0.090.97-0.87-0.91-0.58-0.1-0.1-0.360.330.130.64-0.180.320.580.55-0.810.43
-0.90.830.09-0.88-0.870.870.760.170.170.3-0.38-0.29-0.730.18-0.27-0.71-0.710.92-0.48
-0.950.86-0.1-0.92-0.910.870.720.360.360.3-0.47-0.42-0.760.08-0.23-0.69-0.710.86-0.4
-0.650.610.3-0.59-0.580.760.720.130.130.14-0.26-0.27-0.80.22-0.57-0.78-0.820.8-0.46
-0.150.14-0.75-0.12-0.10.170.360.131.0-0.16-0.74-0.76-0.24-0.170.45-0.23-0.210.19-0.01
-0.150.14-0.75-0.12-0.10.170.360.131.0-0.16-0.74-0.76-0.24-0.170.45-0.23-0.210.19-0.01
-0.40.41-0.06-0.54-0.360.30.30.14-0.16-0.16-0.130.20.19-0.08-0.220.170.070.330.31
0.37-0.350.470.380.33-0.38-0.47-0.26-0.74-0.74-0.130.680.290.41-0.160.290.29-0.43-0.04
0.25-0.130.630.170.13-0.29-0.42-0.27-0.76-0.760.20.680.40.25-0.430.340.27-0.39-0.1
0.69-0.55-0.230.580.64-0.73-0.76-0.8-0.24-0.240.190.290.4-0.250.20.880.88-0.660.62
-0.160.090.19-0.13-0.180.180.080.22-0.17-0.17-0.080.410.25-0.25-0.14-0.23-0.20.18-0.32
0.29-0.36-0.690.290.32-0.27-0.23-0.570.450.45-0.22-0.16-0.430.2-0.140.190.28-0.370.19
0.63-0.6-0.20.530.58-0.71-0.69-0.78-0.23-0.230.170.290.340.88-0.230.190.92-0.650.71
0.62-0.7-0.20.530.55-0.71-0.71-0.82-0.21-0.210.070.290.270.88-0.20.280.92-0.670.66
-0.860.81-0.01-0.84-0.810.920.860.80.190.190.33-0.43-0.39-0.660.18-0.37-0.65-0.67-0.39
0.35-0.37-0.310.340.43-0.48-0.4-0.46-0.01-0.010.31-0.04-0.10.62-0.320.190.710.66-0.39
Click cells to compare fundamentals

Breaking down the case for ESSA Pharma

Net Loss for the year was (26.58 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Other Current Liab36.4M1.4M1.6M1.5M
Total Assets169.5M149.1M171.5M180.1M
Fortune favors the bold, but understanding the risks is key when considering an investment in ESSA Pharma (NASDAQ: EPIX). This clinical-stage biotech company, focused on developing treatments for prostate cancer, presents a mixed bag of volatility and potential.
With a beta of 1.84, ESSA Pharma's stock is more volatile than the broader market, indicating potential for both higher returns and greater risks. The company's probability of bankruptcy stands at 49.16%, a figure that should give pause to risk-averse investors. However, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0%, ESSA Pharma is free from long-term financial obligations, providing some stability amidst the inherent risks of its clinical endeavors..

ESSA Pharma has 88 percent chance to finish above $1.67 in January

ESSA Pharma's stock has seen a sharp drop, with a maximum drawdown of 84.61, indicating tough times for the company. However, there's a glimmer of hope: there's an 88% chance the stock will trade above $1.67 by January. This suggests a potential rebound, making it an interesting prospect for investors who believe in the company's future and can handle the current ups and downs. The stock's above-average volatility can be a double-edged sword, offering both risk and opportunity. Understanding these volatility patterns can help investors make informed decisions. During bear markets, increased volatility can affect ESSA Pharma's stock price, prompting investors to adjust their portfolios as prices fluctuate.

Our Takeaway on ESSA Pharma Investment

While many other companies in the biotechnology industry are either recovering or due for a correction, ESSA Pharma may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. To summarize, as of the 10th of December 2024, our research shows that ESSA Pharma is a rather very risky investment opportunity with a below average probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. From a slightly different view, the entity currently appears to be undervalued. However, our actual 90 days Buy-Hold-Sell recommendation on the company is Strong Sell.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of ESSA Pharma. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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