Breaking down the current Cleveland Cliffs volatility

Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) is a stock that has been showing significant volatility, with a standard deviation of 2.4, indicating a higher risk and potential for higher returns. The stock's kurtosis is 0.4563, suggesting a relatively normal distribution of returns, and a skewness of 0.2327, indicating a slight lean towards positive returns. However, investors should be aware of the stock's Value At Risk (VaR) of 3.93, which represents the potential loss that could occur with a 5% probability. Despite the high volatility, the stock has a potential upside of 4.16, suggesting room for growth in August. However, the stock has experienced a maximum drawdown of 10.84, which is the largest observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Investors should also consider the stock's negative Jensen Alpha of 0.2 and Information Ratio of -0.06, which indicate underperformance relative to the market and a lower risk-adjusted return. Despite these risks, with the current last price at $15.99, Cleveland Cliffs may present an opportunity for investors seeking to capitalize on its volatility and potential for significant growth.

Additional examination

Cleveland Cliffs has approximately 26 million in cash, with a positive cash flow from operations of 2.42 billion. This results in a cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.11.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Ellen Johnson

Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), a key player in the Metals & Mining sector within the Basic Materials industry, is showing promising signs of significant growth as we head into August. The company's valuation metrics indicate a potential upside, with the real value currently standing at $17.35, a slight increase over the market value of $15.99. The possible upside price is even more promising at $18.73, indicating a potential growth trajectory. However, investors should be aware of the potential downside price of $14.21. The company's stock has been given a 'Hold' consensus by analysts, with 3 strong buys, 1 buy, and 7 holds out of 10 estimates. The target price estimated by analysts is $18.94, with the highest estimated target price reaching as high as $27. The company's fiscal year ends in December, providing ample time for these predictions to materialize. Despite the volatility, Cleveland Cliffs remains a compelling investment in the Steel industry. Cleveland Cliffs stock is less volatile than 19% of stocks, and over 99% of all equities are projected to yield higher returns in the next 60 days. While many risk-takers are increasingly venturing into the metals and mining sector, some investors are not entirely satisfied with the current volatility of Cleveland Cliffs. We will explore why this could be a unique year for Cleveland Cliffs shareholders.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Cleveland Cliffs or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Cleveland Cliffs may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Cleveland's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Cleveland Cliffs and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Cleveland Cliffs fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Cleveland Cliffs's Liquidity

Cleveland Cliffs financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Cleveland Cliffs ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Cleveland Cliffs financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Cleveland Cliffs' owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Cleveland Cliffs' financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Cleveland Cliffs's total debt and its cash.

Cleveland Cliffs Gross Profit

Cleveland Cliffs Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Cleveland Cliffs previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Cleveland Cliffs Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Cleveland Cliffs' gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Cleveland Cliffs Volatility Drivers

Cleveland Cliffs unsystematic risk is unique to Cleveland Cliffs and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Cleveland Cliffs you can also buy Nucor Corp. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the materials sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Cleveland Cliffs important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Cleveland Cliffs income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Cleveland volatility.
0.820.910.670.870.780.820.690.390.490.160.16-0.26-0.750.04-0.09-0.350.16-0.26-0.7-0.69-0.690.09
0.820.950.490.760.620.570.60.130.530.130.13-0.03-0.69-0.14-0.46-0.510.28-0.47-0.74-0.69-0.3-0.13
0.910.950.70.890.790.710.60.260.450.140.14-0.13-0.8-0.05-0.39-0.330.11-0.51-0.7-0.66-0.470.0
0.670.490.70.720.920.820.380.360.160.180.18-0.32-0.730.010.020.27-0.45-0.28-0.3-0.31-0.380.22
0.870.760.890.720.820.730.610.40.40.160.16-0.17-0.76-0.01-0.25-0.220.06-0.45-0.63-0.61-0.560.11
0.780.620.790.920.820.870.460.30.380.120.12-0.47-0.840.03-0.040.0-0.26-0.32-0.52-0.55-0.490.03
0.820.570.710.820.730.870.680.30.550.050.05-0.63-0.780.190.32-0.05-0.010.1-0.55-0.57-0.510.22
0.690.60.60.380.610.460.680.490.710.120.12-0.34-0.430.160.2-0.180.320.22-0.39-0.4-0.45-0.05
0.390.130.260.360.40.30.30.490.120.250.250.1-0.13-0.120.110.28-0.430.00.060.06-0.420.04
0.490.530.450.160.40.380.550.710.12-0.06-0.06-0.54-0.39-0.040.19-0.460.360.22-0.67-0.71-0.3-0.01
0.160.130.140.180.160.120.050.120.25-0.061.00.29-0.04-0.52-0.14-0.08-0.15-0.16-0.11-0.19-0.31-0.02
0.160.130.140.180.160.120.050.120.25-0.061.00.29-0.04-0.52-0.14-0.08-0.15-0.16-0.11-0.19-0.31-0.02
-0.26-0.03-0.13-0.32-0.17-0.47-0.63-0.340.1-0.540.290.290.46-0.54-0.52-0.09-0.06-0.410.20.330.3-0.18
-0.75-0.69-0.8-0.73-0.76-0.84-0.78-0.43-0.13-0.39-0.04-0.040.46-0.020.160.110.020.290.560.590.44-0.16
0.04-0.14-0.050.01-0.010.030.190.16-0.12-0.04-0.52-0.52-0.54-0.020.310.210.220.260.220.16-0.020.09
-0.09-0.46-0.390.02-0.25-0.040.320.20.110.19-0.14-0.14-0.520.160.310.20.040.90.140.1-0.050.24
-0.35-0.51-0.330.27-0.220.0-0.05-0.180.28-0.46-0.08-0.08-0.090.110.210.2-0.720.090.790.730.070.29
0.160.280.11-0.450.06-0.26-0.010.32-0.430.36-0.15-0.15-0.060.020.220.04-0.720.25-0.4-0.360.02-0.17
-0.26-0.47-0.51-0.28-0.45-0.320.10.220.00.22-0.16-0.16-0.410.290.260.90.090.250.230.190.140.07
-0.7-0.74-0.7-0.3-0.63-0.52-0.55-0.390.06-0.67-0.11-0.110.20.560.220.140.79-0.40.230.970.32-0.06
-0.69-0.69-0.66-0.31-0.61-0.55-0.57-0.40.06-0.71-0.19-0.190.330.590.160.10.73-0.360.190.970.41-0.11
-0.69-0.3-0.47-0.38-0.56-0.49-0.51-0.45-0.42-0.3-0.31-0.310.30.44-0.02-0.050.070.020.140.320.41-0.21
0.09-0.130.00.220.110.030.22-0.050.04-0.01-0.02-0.02-0.18-0.160.090.240.29-0.170.07-0.06-0.11-0.21
Click cells to compare fundamentals

An Additional Perspective On Cleveland Cliffs

The company reported the last year's revenue of 22.99 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.38 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.52 B.
 2020 2021 2022 2023 (projected)
Receivables1.17 B2.15 B1.96 B2.11 B
Inventories3.83 B5.19 B5.13 B5.54 B
Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), a key player in the Basic Materials sector, is poised for significant growth in August. With a Market Capitalization of $8.24B and a Current Valuation of $13.27B, the company's strong financial footing is undeniable. Despite a Probability Of Bankruptcy at 25.75%, the company's Net Asset of $18.75B and Working Capital of $3.87B provide a solid buffer. The company's financial health is further evidenced by its Debt to Equity ratio of 0.61%, indicating a balanced approach to financing its operations.
The company's robust Cash Flow from Operations of $2.42B and Gross Profit of $2.52B underscore its profitability. However, investors should be aware of the company's volatility, as indicated by a Standard Deviation of 2.4 and a Maximum Drawdown of 10.84. Despite this, the company's Skewness of 0.2327 and Kurtosis of 0.4563 suggest a relatively normal distribution of returns, indicating that extreme values are less likely. With a Target Price of $19.99 and a Current Ratio of 2.33X, Cleveland Cliffs presents a promising investment opportunity. The company's Return On Equity of 0.0718 and Return On Asset of 0.0335 further highlight its potential for growth. Investors should keep an eye on this stock in August. .

Our perspective of the current Cleveland Cliffs drop

Given the recent Market Risk Adjusted Performance of -0.03 for Cleveland Cliffs, we foresee a potential decline in the stock's price. This unfavorable performance suggests that the company's returns are not adequately compensating for the risk it is undertaking, which could result in a decrease in investor confidence and a subsequent fall in stock value. Despite the company's demonstrated resilience in the past, current market conditions advise caution. Investors should closely monitor the situation and assess their risk tolerance before making any decisions. Cleveland Cliffs displays very low volatility, with a skewness of 0.23 and a kurtosis of 0.46. However, we recommend investors to further examine Cleveland Cliffs' technical indicators to ensure all market information is available and reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often assists investors in timing the market. Proper use of volatility indicators allows traders to measure Cleveland Cliffs' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends.
The heightened level of volatility that accompanies bear markets can directly affect Cleveland Cliffs' stock price, adding stress to investors as they watch the value of their shares decrease. This typically compels investors to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing different stocks as prices drop. In conclusion, the investment outlook for Cleveland Cliffs (USA Stocks: CLF) appears promising for August. With an Analyst Target Price Estimated Value of $18.944 and a Valuation Real Value of $17.35, there is a potential for significant upside. While the Analyst Overall Consensus is a 'Hold', it's noteworthy that there are 3 strong buys among the 10 analyst estimates. However, investors should be mindful of the possible downside price of $14.21. Considering the fiscal year end in December, the current valuation market value of $15.99, and the naive expected forecast value of $16.47, it's safe to say that Cleveland Cliffs is poised for an exciting month ahead. .

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