Trinity Industries Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| TRN Stock | USD 37.70 0.25 0.67% |
Trinity | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Trinity Industries Company odds of distress Analysis
Trinity Industries' Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Trinity Industries Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 9% |
Most of Trinity Industries' fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Trinity Industries is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Trinity Industries probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Trinity Industries odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Trinity Industries financial health.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trinity Industries. If investors know Trinity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trinity Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.463 | Dividend Share 1.12 | Earnings Share 2.25 | Revenue Per Share 39.739 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Trinity Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trinity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trinity Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trinity Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trinity Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trinity Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trinity Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trinity Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trinity Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Trinity Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Trinity Industries is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Trinity Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Trinity Industries' main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Trinity Industries' historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Trinity Industries' interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Trinity Industries has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 9.0%. This is 78.86% lower than that of the Machinery sector and 78.21% lower than that of the Industrials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 77.4% higher than that of the company.
Trinity Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Trinity Industries' direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Trinity Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trinity Industries by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Trinity Industries is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among its peers.
Trinity Industries Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | 0.0199 | 0.0158 | (0.026) | 0.004772 | 0.0113 | 0.0119 | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 0.32 | |
| Net Debt | 4.7B | 4.9B | 5.0B | 5.5B | 5.6B | 5.9B | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 546M | 471.1M | 513.8M | 548.5M | 627.7M | 533.6M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 5.8B | 6.2B | 6.4B | 6.9B | 7.0B | 7.4B | |
| Total Assets | 8.7B | 8.7B | 8.2B | 8.7B | 8.9B | 4.5B | |
| Total Current Assets | 985.8M | 1.2B | 968.3M | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.1B | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 393.6M | 651.7M | 611.8M | (12.8M) | 295.6M | 347.0M |
Trinity Industries ESG Sustainability
Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Trinity Industries' sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Trinity Industries' managers, analysts, and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
Trinity Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | 0.16 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0316 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.05 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.14 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 8.55 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 82.16 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.06 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 87.95 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 2.84 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 38.55 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 2.91 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.95 X | ||||
| Revenue | 2.98 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 367.7 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 707.7 M | ||||
| Net Income | 140 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 79.6 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 0.72 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 5.75 B | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 4.36 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 2.11 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 12.86 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 295.6 M | ||||
| Short Ratio | 5.02 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 2.25 X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.78 X | ||||
| Target Price | 36.5 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 9.48 K | ||||
| Beta | 1.38 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 3.1 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 8.91 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 1.01 B | ||||
| Working Capital | 680.5 M | ||||
| Current Asset | 2.28 B | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 746.4 M | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.03 % | ||||
| Five Year Return | 2.76 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 8.91 B | ||||
| Last Dividend Paid | 1.12 |
About Trinity Industries Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Trinity Industries's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Trinity Industries using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Trinity Industries based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Pair Trading with Trinity Industries
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Trinity Industries position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Trinity Industries will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Trinity Stock
Moving against Trinity Stock
| 0.87 | RUN | Sunrun Inc Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | WPRT | Westport Fuel Systems | PairCorr |
| 0.57 | EFSH | 1847 Holdings LLC | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Trinity Industries could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Trinity Industries when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Trinity Industries - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Trinity Industries to buy it.
The correlation of Trinity Industries is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Trinity Industries moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Trinity Industries moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Trinity Industries can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trinity Industries Piotroski F Score and Trinity Industries Altman Z Score analysis. To learn how to invest in Trinity Stock, please use our How to Invest in Trinity Industries guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trinity Industries. If investors know Trinity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trinity Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.463 | Dividend Share 1.12 | Earnings Share 2.25 | Revenue Per Share 39.739 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Trinity Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trinity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trinity Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trinity Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trinity Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trinity Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trinity Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trinity Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trinity Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.