Porch Group Stock Price Prediction
| PRCH Stock | USD 5.32 0.37 7.47% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.08 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.64) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.17) | Wall Street Target Price 6.4167 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.30) |
Using Porch hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Porch Group from the perspective of Porch response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Porch using Porch's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Porch using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Porch's stock price.
Porch Implied Volatility | 0.92 |
Porch's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Porch Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Porch's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Porch stock will not fluctuate a lot when Porch's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Porch to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Porch because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Porch after-hype prediction price | USD 6.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Porch contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Porch Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0575% per day over the life of the 2025-01-17 option contract. With Porch trading at USD 5.32, that is roughly USD 0.003059 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Porch's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Porch Group options at the current volatility level of 0.92%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Porch |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Porch's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Porch After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Porch at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Porch or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Porch, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Porch Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Porch's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Porch's historical news coverage. Porch's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.33 and 20.98, respectively. We have considered Porch's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Porch is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Porch Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Porch Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Porch is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Porch backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Porch, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.95 | 14.31 | 3.57 | 0.20 | 9 Events / Month | 14 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.32 | 6.67 | 25.32 |
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Porch Hype Timeline
Porch Group is at this time traded for 5.32. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.57, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.2. Porch is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.67 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 25.32%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 2.95%. The volatility of related hype on Porch is about 20890.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.12. Porch Group currently holds 435.74 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.11, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Porch Group has a current ratio of 1.3, suggesting that it may have difficulties to pay its financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Porch's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Porch Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Porch Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Porch's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Porch's future price movements. Getting to know how Porch's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Porch may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Porch Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Porch price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Porch using various technical indicators. When you analyze Porch charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Porch Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Porch stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Porch Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Porch based on analysis of Porch hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Porch's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Porch's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0521 | 0.0462 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.79 | 0.75 |
Story Coverage note for Porch
The number of cover stories for Porch depends on current market conditions and Porch's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Porch is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Porch's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Porch Short Properties
Porch's future price predictability will typically decrease when Porch's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Porch Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Porch's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Porch's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 96.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 294 M |
Complementary Tools for Porch Stock analysis
When running Porch's price analysis, check to measure Porch's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Porch is operating at the current time. Most of Porch's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Porch's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Porch's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Porch to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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