Origin Energy (Australia) Price Prediction

ORG Stock   10.81  0.27  2.56%   
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Origin Energy's share price is at 55. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Origin Energy, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

55

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Origin Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Origin Energy, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Origin Energy's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.75
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.85
Wall Street Target Price
10.2692
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.055
Using Origin Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Origin Energy from the perspective of Origin Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Origin Energy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Origin because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Origin Energy after-hype prediction price

    
  AUD 10.83  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Origin Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.398.5311.89
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.170.190.20
Details

Origin Energy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Origin Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Origin Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Origin Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Origin Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Origin Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Origin Energy's historical news coverage. Origin Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.69 and 11.97, respectively. We have considered Origin Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
10.81
10.83
After-hype Price
11.97
Upside
Origin Energy is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Origin Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.

Origin Energy Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Origin Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Origin Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Origin Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.12 
1.14
  0.02 
  0.02 
1 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
10.81
10.83
0.19 
600.00  
Notes

Origin Energy Hype Timeline

Origin Energy is now traded for 10.81on Australian Securities Exchange of Australia. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Origin is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.83 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Origin Energy is about 899.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.79. The company reported the revenue of 16.18 B. Net Income was 1.4 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 297 M. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Origin Energy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Origin Energy Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Origin Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Origin Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Origin Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Origin Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
WBCPJWestpac Banking(0.03)3 per month 0.15 (0.07) 0.39 (0.37) 1.27 
ASKABACUS STORAGE KING 0.01 2 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.33 (1.71) 6.25 
ODYOdyssey Energy 0.00 2 per month 0.00 (0.07) 10.00 (9.09) 31.82 
RPLRegal Funds Management 0.03 4 per month 2.03  0.02  4.08 (3.18) 10.83 
YALYancoal Australia 0.03 1 per month 1.49  0.09  3.12 (2.87) 8.71 
SGMSims 0.12 1 per month 1.58 (0.02) 3.43 (2.38) 8.95 
AMEAlto Metals(0)3 per month 1.79  0.22  5.06 (3.80) 13.62 
MMEMoneyMe 0.01 2 per month 4.21  0.09  9.09 (8.33) 35.61 
HUBHub24(1.31)3 per month 1.57  0.17  2.37 (2.04) 9.09 

Origin Energy Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Origin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Origin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Origin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Origin Energy Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Origin Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Origin Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Origin Energy based on analysis of Origin Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Origin Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Origin Energy's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Origin Energy

The number of cover stories for Origin Energy depends on current market conditions and Origin Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Origin Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Origin Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Origin Energy Short Properties

Origin Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Origin Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Origin Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Origin Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.7 B
Cash And Short Term Investments1.4 B

Additional Tools for Origin Stock Analysis

When running Origin Energy's price analysis, check to measure Origin Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.