Ashford Hospitality Trust Stock Price Prediction
| AHT Stock | USD 7.55 0.27 3.45% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 15 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.19) |
Using Ashford Hospitality hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ashford Hospitality Trust from the perspective of Ashford Hospitality response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ashford Hospitality to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ashford because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ashford Hospitality after-hype prediction price | USD 7.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ashford |
Ashford Hospitality After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ashford Hospitality at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ashford Hospitality or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ashford Hospitality, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
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| Expected price to next headline |
Ashford Hospitality Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ashford Hospitality's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ashford Hospitality's historical news coverage. Ashford Hospitality's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.83 and 14.05, respectively. We have considered Ashford Hospitality's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ashford Hospitality is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ashford Hospitality Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ashford Hospitality Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ashford Hospitality is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ashford Hospitality backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ashford Hospitality, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 6.61 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.55 | 7.44 | 1.46 |
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Ashford Hospitality Hype Timeline
On the 29th of December Ashford Hospitality Trust is traded for 7.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Ashford is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 7.44. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.46%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Ashford Hospitality is about 49575.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.55. About 22.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.32. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ashford Hospitality Trust recorded earning per share (EPS) of 4976.9. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of December 2019. The firm had 1:10 split on the 28th of October 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Ashford Hospitality Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ashford Hospitality Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ashford Hospitality's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ashford Hospitality's future price movements. Getting to know how Ashford Hospitality's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ashford Hospitality may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SOHO | Sotherly Hotels | 0.04 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.38 | (7.91) | 33.63 | |
| INN | Summit Hotel Properties | 0.11 | 9 per month | 1.71 | (0) | 3.37 | (3.11) | 10.67 | |
| DRH | Diamondrock Hospitality | 0.07 | 6 per month | 1.66 | 0.02 | 2.25 | (2.27) | 11.65 | |
| RLJ | RLJ Lodging Trust | (0.34) | 8 per month | 1.42 | 0.06 | 1.98 | (1.91) | 10.42 | |
| HT | Hersha Hospitality Trust | (0.06) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.28 | (2.58) | 9.17 | |
| HST | Host Hotels Resorts | 0.35 | 8 per month | 1.67 | (0.02) | 2.01 | (2.13) | 9.01 | |
| SVC | Service Properties Trust | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 5.02 | (6.64) | 21.34 | |
| SHO | Sunstone Hotel Investors | 0.24 | 11 per month | 1.10 | 0.1 | 3.05 | (2.58) | 12.79 | |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties | (0.66) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.71 | (1.74) | 10.13 | |
| PEB | Pebblebrook Hotel Trust | 0.26 | 11 per month | 2.06 | 0 | 3.92 | (3.29) | 14.88 | |
| PK | Park Hotels Resorts | 0.01 | 9 per month | 1.65 | 0.02 | 2.85 | (2.22) | 12.02 | |
| CLDT | Chatham Lodging Trust | (0.20) | 7 per month | 1.64 | 0.02 | 3.30 | (2.60) | 14.51 |
Ashford Hospitality Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ashford price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ashford using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ashford charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ashford Hospitality Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ashford Hospitality stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ashford Hospitality Trust, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ashford Hospitality based on analysis of Ashford Hospitality hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ashford Hospitality's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ashford Hospitality's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0897 | 0.0809 | 0.023 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.26 | 0.12 | 0.43 |
Story Coverage note for Ashford Hospitality
The number of cover stories for Ashford Hospitality depends on current market conditions and Ashford Hospitality's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ashford Hospitality is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ashford Hospitality's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ashford Hospitality Short Properties
Ashford Hospitality's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ashford Hospitality's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ashford Hospitality Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ashford Hospitality's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ashford Hospitality's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 34.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 165.2 M |
Additional Tools for Ashford Stock Analysis
When running Ashford Hospitality's price analysis, check to measure Ashford Hospitality's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ashford Hospitality is operating at the current time. Most of Ashford Hospitality's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ashford Hospitality's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ashford Hospitality's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ashford Hospitality to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.