Adverum Biotechnologies Stock Price Prediction
| ADVM Stock | USD 4.61 0.11 2.44% |
Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.32) | EPS Estimate Current Year (5.04) | EPS Estimate Next Year (4.34) | Wall Street Target Price 29.7143 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.31) |
Using Adverum Biotechnologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Adverum Biotechnologies from the perspective of Adverum Biotechnologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Adverum Biotechnologies using Adverum Biotechnologies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Adverum using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Adverum Biotechnologies' stock price.
Adverum Biotechnologies Implied Volatility | 2.02 |
Adverum Biotechnologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Adverum Biotechnologies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Adverum Biotechnologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Adverum Biotechnologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Adverum Biotechnologies' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Adverum Biotechnologies to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Adverum because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Adverum Biotechnologies after-hype prediction price | USD 4.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Adverum contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Adverum Biotechnologies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.13% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With Adverum Biotechnologies trading at USD 4.61, that is roughly USD 0.00582 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Adverum Biotechnologies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Adverum Biotechnologies options at the current volatility level of 2.02%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Adverum |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adverum Biotechnologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adverum Biotechnologies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Adverum Biotechnologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Adverum Biotechnologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Adverum Biotechnologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Adverum Biotechnologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Adverum Biotechnologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Adverum Biotechnologies' historical news coverage. Adverum Biotechnologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.23 and 9.22, respectively. We have considered Adverum Biotechnologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Adverum Biotechnologies is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Adverum Biotechnologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Adverum Biotechnologies Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Adverum Biotechnologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Adverum Biotechnologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Adverum Biotechnologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 4.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 13 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.61 | 4.61 | 0.00 |
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Adverum Biotechnologies Hype Timeline
Adverum Biotechnologies is presently traded for 4.61. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Adverum is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Adverum Biotechnologies is about 63387.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.61. About 13.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.67. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Adverum Biotechnologies recorded a loss per share of 5.95. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 21st of March 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Adverum Biotechnologies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Adverum Biotechnologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Adverum Biotechnologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Adverum Biotechnologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Adverum Biotechnologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Adverum Biotechnologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Adverum Biotechnologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Adverum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Adverum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Adverum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Adverum Biotechnologies Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Adverum Biotechnologies stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Adverum Biotechnologies, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Adverum Biotechnologies based on analysis of Adverum Biotechnologies hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Adverum Biotechnologies's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Adverum Biotechnologies's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Interest Debt Per Share | 10.76 | 6.7 | 7.03 | Revenue Per Share | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.34 |
Story Coverage note for Adverum Biotechnologies
The number of cover stories for Adverum Biotechnologies depends on current market conditions and Adverum Biotechnologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Adverum Biotechnologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Adverum Biotechnologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Adverum Biotechnologies Short Properties
Adverum Biotechnologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Adverum Biotechnologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Adverum Biotechnologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Adverum Biotechnologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Adverum Biotechnologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 96.5 M |
Check out Adverum Biotechnologies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Adverum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Adverum Biotechnologies guide.You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adverum Biotechnologies. If investors know Adverum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adverum Biotechnologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.95) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.70) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Adverum Biotechnologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adverum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adverum Biotechnologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adverum Biotechnologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adverum Biotechnologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adverum Biotechnologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adverum Biotechnologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adverum Biotechnologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adverum Biotechnologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.