Correlation Between 2 Year and 30 Year

Can any of the company-specific risk be diversified away by investing in both 2 Year and 30 Year at the same time? Although using a correlation coefficient on its own may not help to predict future stock returns, this module helps to understand the diversifiable risk of combining 2 Year and 30 Year into the same portfolio, which is an essential part of the fundamental portfolio management process.

By analyzing existing cross correlation between 2 Year T Note Futures and 30 Year Treasury, you can compare the effects of market volatilities on 2 Year and 30 Year and check how they will diversify away market risk if combined in the same portfolio for a given time horizon. You can also utilize pair trading strategies of matching a long position in 2 Year with a short position of 30 Year. Check out your portfolio center. Please also check ongoing floating volatility patterns of 2 Year and 30 Year.

Diversification Opportunities for 2 Year and 30 Year

0.83

Correlation Coefficient

2 Year  30 Year

Very poor diversification

The 3 months correlation between ZTUSD and ZBUSD is 0.83. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding 2 Year T Note Futures and 30 Year Treasury in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed. The correlation between historical prices or returns on 30 Year Treasury and 2 Year is a relative statistical measure of the degree to which these equity instruments tend to move together. The correlation coefficient measures the extent to which returns on 2 Year T Note Futures are associated (or correlated) with 30 Year. Values of the correlation coefficient range from -1 to +1, where. The correlation of zero (0) is possible when the price movement of 30 Year Treasury has no effect on the direction of 2 Year i.e., 2 Year and 30 Year go up and down completely randomly.

Pair Corralation between 2 Year and 30 Year

Assuming the 90 days horizon 2 Year is expected to generate 3.55 times less return on investment than 30 Year. But when comparing it to its historical volatility, 2 Year T Note Futures is 6.34 times less risky than 30 Year. It trades about 0.13 of its potential returns per unit of risk. 30 Year Treasury is currently generating about 0.07 of returns per unit of risk over similar time horizon. If you would invest  11,409  in 30 Year Treasury on December 28, 2024 and sell it today you would earn a total of  300.00  from holding 30 Year Treasury or generate 2.63% return on investment over 90 days.

Time Period	3 Months [change]
Direction	Moves Together
Strength	Strong
Accuracy	100.0%
Values	Daily Returns

2 Year T Note Futures  vs.  30 Year Treasury

2 Year T

Risk-Adjusted Performance

OK

Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in 2 Year T Note Futures are ranked lower than 9 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather sound basic indicators, 2 Year is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price tumult, may contribute to shorter-term losses for the shareholders.

30 Year Treasury

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Insignificant

Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in 30 Year Treasury are ranked lower than 5 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather sound basic indicators, 30 Year is not utilizing all of its potentials. The latest stock price tumult, may contribute to shorter-term losses for the shareholders.

Pair Trading with 2 Year and 30 Year

The main advantage of trading using opposite 2 Year and 30 Year positions is that it hedges away some unsystematic risk. Because of two separate transactions, even if 2 Year position performs unexpectedly, 30 Year can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in 30 Year will offset losses from the drop in 30 Year's long position.

The idea behind 2 Year T Note Futures and 30 Year Treasury pairs trading is to make the combined position market-neutral, meaning the overall market's direction will not affect its win or loss (or potential downside or upside). This can be achieved by designing a pairs trade with two highly correlated stocks or equities that operate in a similar space or sector, making it possible to obtain profits through simple and relatively low-risk investment.

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Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.