Correlation Between Five Year and Lumber Futures

Can any of the company-specific risk be diversified away by investing in both Five Year and Lumber Futures at the same time? Although using a correlation coefficient on its own may not help to predict future stock returns, this module helps to understand the diversifiable risk of combining Five Year and Lumber Futures into the same portfolio, which is an essential part of the fundamental portfolio management process.

By analyzing existing cross correlation between Five Year Treasury Note and Lumber Futures, you can compare the effects of market volatilities on Five Year and Lumber Futures and check how they will diversify away market risk if combined in the same portfolio for a given time horizon. You can also utilize pair trading strategies of matching a long position in Five Year with a short position of Lumber Futures. Check out your portfolio center. Please also check ongoing floating volatility patterns of Five Year and Lumber Futures.

Diversification Opportunities for Five Year and Lumber Futures

0.89

Correlation Coefficient

Five Year  Lumber Futures

Very poor diversification

The 3 months correlation between Five and Lumber is 0.89. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Five Year Treasury Note and Lumber Futures in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed. The correlation between historical prices or returns on Lumber Futures and Five Year is a relative statistical measure of the degree to which these equity instruments tend to move together. The correlation coefficient measures the extent to which returns on Five Year Treasury Note are associated (or correlated) with Lumber Futures. Values of the correlation coefficient range from -1 to +1, where. The correlation of zero (0) is possible when the price movement of Lumber Futures has no effect on the direction of Five Year i.e., Five Year and Lumber Futures go up and down completely randomly.

Pair Corralation between Five Year and Lumber Futures

Assuming the 90 days horizon Five Year is expected to generate 13.02 times less return on investment than Lumber Futures. But when comparing it to its historical volatility, Five Year Treasury Note is 8.38 times less risky than Lumber Futures. It trades about 0.12 of its potential returns per unit of risk. Lumber Futures is currently generating about 0.19 of returns per unit of risk over similar time horizon. If you would invest  55,450  in Lumber Futures on December 29, 2024 and sell it today you would earn a total of  12,550  from holding Lumber Futures or generate 22.63% return on investment over 90 days.

Time Period	3 Months [change]
Direction	Moves Together
Strength	Strong
Accuracy	96.88%
Values	Daily Returns

Five Year Treasury Note  vs.  Lumber Futures

Five Year Treasury

Risk-Adjusted Performance

OK

Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Five Year Treasury Note are ranked lower than 9 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather sound basic indicators, Five Year is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price tumult, may contribute to shorter-term losses for the shareholders.

Lumber Futures

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Lumber Futures are ranked lower than 14 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather weak basic indicators, Lumber Futures exhibited solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point.

Pair Trading with Five Year and Lumber Futures

The main advantage of trading using opposite Five Year and Lumber Futures positions is that it hedges away some unsystematic risk. Because of two separate transactions, even if Five Year position performs unexpectedly, Lumber Futures can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Lumber Futures will offset losses from the drop in Lumber Futures' long position.

The idea behind Five Year Treasury Note and Lumber Futures pairs trading is to make the combined position market-neutral, meaning the overall market's direction will not affect its win or loss (or potential downside or upside). This can be achieved by designing a pairs trade with two highly correlated stocks or equities that operate in a similar space or sector, making it possible to obtain profits through simple and relatively low-risk investment.

Check out your portfolio center.

Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.