Stifel Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

SFB Stock  USD 21.20  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stifel Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 20.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.46. Stifel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Stifel Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Stifel Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Stifel Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
The current year's Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 4.07, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 0.66. . The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 754.5 M, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 68.6 M.

Stifel Financial Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Stifel Financial's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1989-03-31
Previous Quarter
2.7 B
Current Value
1.9 B
Quarterly Volatility
743 M
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Stifel Financial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Stifel Financial value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Stifel Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stifel Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 20.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.46.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stifel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stifel Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stifel Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

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Stifel Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Stifel Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Stifel Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.17 and 21.48, respectively. We have considered Stifel Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.20
20.83
Expected Value
21.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stifel Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stifel Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.4145
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1224
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0054
SAESum of the absolute errors7.4644
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Stifel Financial. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Stifel Financial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Stifel Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stifel Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.7021.3522.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.1921.8422.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Stifel Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Stifel Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Stifel Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Stifel Financial.

Other Forecasting Options for Stifel Financial

For every potential investor in Stifel, whether a beginner or expert, Stifel Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Stifel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Stifel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Stifel Financial's price trends.

Stifel Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Stifel Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Stifel Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Stifel Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Stifel Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Stifel Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Stifel Financial's current price.

Stifel Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Stifel Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Stifel Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Stifel Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Stifel Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Stifel Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Stifel Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Stifel Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stifel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Stifel Financial offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Stifel Financial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Stifel Financial Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Stifel Financial Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stifel Financial to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Stifel Stock refer to our How to Trade Stifel Stock guide.
You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Stifel Financial. If investors know Stifel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Stifel Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Return On Equity
0.196
The market value of Stifel Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Stifel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Stifel Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Stifel Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Stifel Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Stifel Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Stifel Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Stifel Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Stifel Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.