Heineken Holding OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HKHHY Stock  USD 30.70  0.04  0.13%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Heineken Holding NV on the next trading day is expected to be 30.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.89. Heineken OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Heineken Holding is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Heineken Holding NV value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Heineken Holding Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Heineken Holding NV on the next trading day is expected to be 30.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.89.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Heineken OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Heineken Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Heineken Holding OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

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Heineken Holding Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Heineken Holding's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Heineken Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.49 and 32.04, respectively. We have considered Heineken Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
30.70
30.77
Expected Value
32.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Heineken Holding otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Heineken Holding otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.6763
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3589
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0102
SAESum of the absolute errors21.8918
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Heineken Holding NV. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Heineken Holding. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Heineken Holding

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heineken Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29.4330.7031.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
26.1827.4533.77
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
29.8932.0034.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Heineken Holding. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Heineken Holding's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Heineken Holding's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Heineken Holding.

Other Forecasting Options for Heineken Holding

For every potential investor in Heineken, whether a beginner or expert, Heineken Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Heineken OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Heineken. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Heineken Holding's price trends.

Heineken Holding Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Heineken Holding otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Heineken Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heineken Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Heineken Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics

The otc stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Heineken Holding's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Heineken Holding's current price.

Heineken Holding Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Heineken Holding otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Heineken Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Heineken Holding otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Heineken Holding NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Heineken Holding Risk Indicators

The analysis of Heineken Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Heineken Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting heineken otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Heineken OTC Stock Analysis

When running Heineken Holding's price analysis, check to measure Heineken Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Heineken Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Heineken Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Heineken Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Heineken Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Heineken Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.