Federated Gov Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FSGIX Fund | USD 9.58 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Federated Gov Sec on the next trading day is expected to be 9.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.56. Federated Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Federated |
Federated Gov Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Federated Gov Sec on the next trading day is expected to be 9.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Federated Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Federated Gov's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Federated Gov Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Federated Gov | Federated Gov Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Federated Gov Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Federated Gov's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Federated Gov's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.46 and 9.66, respectively. We have considered Federated Gov's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Federated Gov mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Federated Gov mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.0766 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0092 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.001 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.5601 |
Predictive Modules for Federated Gov
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federated Gov Sec. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Federated Gov
For every potential investor in Federated, whether a beginner or expert, Federated Gov's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Federated Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Federated. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Federated Gov's price trends.Federated Gov Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Federated Gov mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Federated Gov could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Federated Gov by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Federated Gov Sec Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Federated Gov's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Federated Gov's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Federated Gov Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Federated Gov mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Federated Gov shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Federated Gov mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Federated Gov Sec entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Federated Gov Risk Indicators
The analysis of Federated Gov's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Federated Gov's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting federated mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0705 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1029 | |||
| Variance | 0.0106 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Federated Mutual Fund
Federated Gov financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federated Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federated with respect to the benefits of owning Federated Gov security.
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