Egyptian Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

EFIC Stock   151.00  1.27  0.85%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Egyptian Financial Industrial on the next trading day is expected to be 146.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 269.94. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Egyptian Financial's stock prices and determine the direction of Egyptian Financial Industrial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Egyptian Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
A naive forecasting model for Egyptian Financial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Egyptian Financial Industrial value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Egyptian Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Egyptian Financial Industrial on the next trading day is expected to be 146.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.43, mean absolute percentage error of 31.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 269.94.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Egyptian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Egyptian Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Egyptian Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

Egyptian Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Egyptian Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Egyptian Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 143.06 and 149.29, respectively. We have considered Egyptian Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
151.00
143.06
Downside
146.17
Expected Value
149.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Egyptian Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Egyptian Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.5596
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation4.4253
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0335
SAESum of the absolute errors269.9411
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Egyptian Financial Industrial. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Egyptian Financial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Egyptian Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Egyptian Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Egyptian Financial

For every potential investor in Egyptian, whether a beginner or expert, Egyptian Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Egyptian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Egyptian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Egyptian Financial's price trends.

Egyptian Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Egyptian Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Egyptian Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Egyptian Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Egyptian Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Egyptian Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Egyptian Financial's current price.

Egyptian Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Egyptian Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Egyptian Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Egyptian Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Egyptian Financial Industrial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Egyptian Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Egyptian Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Egyptian Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting egyptian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.