Armac Locacao Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ARML3 Stock   5.85  0.34  5.49%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Armac Locacao Logistica on the next trading day is expected to be 5.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.27. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Armac Locacao's stock prices and determine the direction of Armac Locacao Logistica's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Armac Locacao's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.
  
A naive forecasting model for Armac Locacao is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Armac Locacao Logistica value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Armac Locacao Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Armac Locacao Logistica on the next trading day is expected to be 5.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.27.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Armac Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Armac Locacao's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Armac Locacao Stock Forecast Pattern

Armac Locacao Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Armac Locacao's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Armac Locacao's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.07 and 8.97, respectively. We have considered Armac Locacao's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.85
5.52
Expected Value
8.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Armac Locacao stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Armac Locacao stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9818
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2831
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0373
SAESum of the absolute errors17.2695
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Armac Locacao Logistica. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Armac Locacao. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Armac Locacao

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Armac Locacao Logistica. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Armac Locacao. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Armac Locacao's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Armac Locacao's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Armac Locacao Logistica.

Other Forecasting Options for Armac Locacao

For every potential investor in Armac, whether a beginner or expert, Armac Locacao's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Armac Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Armac. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Armac Locacao's price trends.

Armac Locacao Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Armac Locacao stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Armac Locacao could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Armac Locacao by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Armac Locacao Logistica Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Armac Locacao's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Armac Locacao's current price.

Armac Locacao Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Armac Locacao stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Armac Locacao shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Armac Locacao stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Armac Locacao Logistica entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Armac Locacao Risk Indicators

The analysis of Armac Locacao's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Armac Locacao's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting armac stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Armac Stock Analysis

When running Armac Locacao's price analysis, check to measure Armac Locacao's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Armac Locacao is operating at the current time. Most of Armac Locacao's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Armac Locacao's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Armac Locacao's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Armac Locacao to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.