Agroton Public Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AGT Stock   3.95  0.03  0.75%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Agroton Public on the next trading day is expected to be 3.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.10. Agroton Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Agroton Public is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Agroton Public value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Agroton Public Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Agroton Public on the next trading day is expected to be 3.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agroton Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agroton Public's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Agroton Public Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Agroton PublicAgroton Public Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Agroton Public Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Agroton Public's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agroton Public's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.13 and 6.61, respectively. We have considered Agroton Public's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.95
3.87
Expected Value
6.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agroton Public stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agroton Public stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.3301
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0673
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0181
SAESum of the absolute errors4.1033
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Agroton Public. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Agroton Public. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Agroton Public

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agroton Public. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agroton Public's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.243.986.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.543.286.02
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Agroton Public

For every potential investor in Agroton, whether a beginner or expert, Agroton Public's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agroton Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agroton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agroton Public's price trends.

Agroton Public Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agroton Public stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agroton Public could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agroton Public by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Agroton Public Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Agroton Public's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Agroton Public's current price.

Agroton Public Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agroton Public stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agroton Public shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agroton Public stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agroton Public entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Agroton Public Risk Indicators

The analysis of Agroton Public's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agroton Public's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agroton stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Agroton Public

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Agroton Public position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Agroton Public will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Agroton Stock

  0.68AST Astarta Holding NVPairCorr

Moving against Agroton Stock

  0.6906N Magna Polonia SAPairCorr
  0.59MOV Movie Games SAPairCorr
  0.46KOM Komputronik SAPairCorr
  0.42MRC Mercator MedicalPairCorr
  0.38MON Monnari Trade SAPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Agroton Public could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Agroton Public when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Agroton Public - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Agroton Public to buy it.
The correlation of Agroton Public is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Agroton Public moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Agroton Public moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Agroton Public can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Agroton Stock Analysis

When running Agroton Public's price analysis, check to measure Agroton Public's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agroton Public is operating at the current time. Most of Agroton Public's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agroton Public's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agroton Public's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agroton Public to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.