Super Dragon Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

9955 Stock  TWD 28.25  0.55  1.91%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Super Dragon Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 29.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.92. Super Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Super Dragon is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Super Dragon Technology value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Super Dragon Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Super Dragon Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 29.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Super Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Super Dragon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Super Dragon Stock Forecast Pattern

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Super Dragon Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Super Dragon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Super Dragon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.67 and 31.44, respectively. We have considered Super Dragon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.25
29.56
Expected Value
31.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Super Dragon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Super Dragon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.6971
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6544
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0197
SAESum of the absolute errors39.9195
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Super Dragon Technology. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Super Dragon. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Super Dragon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Super Dragon Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26.3628.2530.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.8525.7431.08
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Super Dragon

For every potential investor in Super, whether a beginner or expert, Super Dragon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Super Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Super. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Super Dragon's price trends.

Super Dragon Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Super Dragon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Super Dragon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Super Dragon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Super Dragon Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Super Dragon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Super Dragon's current price.

Super Dragon Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Super Dragon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Super Dragon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Super Dragon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Super Dragon Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Super Dragon Risk Indicators

The analysis of Super Dragon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Super Dragon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting super stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Super Stock Analysis

When running Super Dragon's price analysis, check to measure Super Dragon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Super Dragon is operating at the current time. Most of Super Dragon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Super Dragon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Super Dragon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Super Dragon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.