TCL Zhonghuan Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

002129 Stock   9.26  0.10  1.07%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of TCL Zhonghuan Renewable on the next trading day is expected to be 9.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.44. TCL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast TCL Zhonghuan stock prices and determine the direction of TCL Zhonghuan Renewable's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of TCL Zhonghuan's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, TCL Zhonghuan's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Current Liabilities is expected to grow to about 23.4 B, whereas Other Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 101.3 M.
A naive forecasting model for TCL Zhonghuan is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of TCL Zhonghuan Renewable value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

TCL Zhonghuan Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of TCL Zhonghuan Renewable on the next trading day is expected to be 9.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TCL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TCL Zhonghuan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

TCL Zhonghuan Stock Forecast Pattern

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TCL Zhonghuan Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting TCL Zhonghuan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TCL Zhonghuan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.11 and 13.25, respectively. We have considered TCL Zhonghuan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.26
9.18
Expected Value
13.25
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TCL Zhonghuan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TCL Zhonghuan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.19
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4498
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.044
SAESum of the absolute errors27.4367
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of TCL Zhonghuan Renewable. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict TCL Zhonghuan. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for TCL Zhonghuan

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TCL Zhonghuan Renewable. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.469.5213.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.148.2012.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.119.9710.82
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.51-0.280.62
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as TCL Zhonghuan. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against TCL Zhonghuan's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, TCL Zhonghuan's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in TCL Zhonghuan Renewable.

Other Forecasting Options for TCL Zhonghuan

For every potential investor in TCL, whether a beginner or expert, TCL Zhonghuan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TCL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TCL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TCL Zhonghuan's price trends.

TCL Zhonghuan Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TCL Zhonghuan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TCL Zhonghuan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TCL Zhonghuan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of TCL Zhonghuan's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of TCL Zhonghuan's current price.

TCL Zhonghuan Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TCL Zhonghuan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TCL Zhonghuan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TCL Zhonghuan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TCL Zhonghuan Renewable entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

TCL Zhonghuan Risk Indicators

The analysis of TCL Zhonghuan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TCL Zhonghuan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tcl stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in TCL Stock

TCL Zhonghuan financial ratios help investors to determine whether TCL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TCL with respect to the benefits of owning TCL Zhonghuan security.