Ulta Beauty Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ULTA Stock | USD 365.70 1.81 0.50% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Ulta Beauty is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Ulta Beauty buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding ULTA positions.
Check out Ulta Beauty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For information on how to trade Ulta Stock refer to our How to Trade Ulta Stock guide. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Ulta and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Ulta Beauty. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate.
Ulta |
Execute Ulta Beauty Buy or Sell Advice
The Ulta recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Ulta Beauty. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Ulta Beauty or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Ulta Beauty's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Slowly supersedes the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Ulta Beauty Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Ulta Beauty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 93.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from marketbeat.com: 3 Beauty Stocks Off to an Ugly StartCan 1 Stage a Comeback |
Ulta Beauty Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Ulta Beauty's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Ulta Beauty's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Ulta Beauty daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Ulta Beauty price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Ulta Beauty returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Ulta Beauty.
| Mean Return | 0.02 | Value At Risk | -3.24 | Potential Upside | 4.23 | Standard Deviation | 2.39 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Ulta Beauty historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Ulta Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-12-31 | 562.2 K | Champlain Investment Partners, Llc | 2024-12-31 | 560.7 K | Norges Bank | 2024-12-31 | 550.5 K | T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. | 2024-12-31 | 536.8 K | Alecta Pensionsforsakring, Omsesidigt | 2024-12-31 | 516.4 K | Td Asset Management Inc | 2024-12-31 | 516 K | Ubs Group Ag | 2024-12-31 | 503.1 K | Holocene Advisors, Lp | 2024-12-31 | 467.4 K | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2024-12-31 | 466.6 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 5.5 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-12-31 | 4.3 M |
Ulta Beauty Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 653.7M | (614.5M) | 306.3M | 28.7M | 33.0M | 37.7M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 658.5M | 887.1M | 1.2B | 1.0B | 1.2B | 1.3B | |
| Depreciation | 297.8M | 268.5M | 241.4M | 243.8M | 280.4M | 154.8M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 347.4M | 281.6M | 308.6M | 344.2M | 395.8M | 415.6M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 151.9M | 172.2M | 312.1M | 435.3M | 500.6M | 525.6M | |
| Net Income | 175.8M | 985.8M | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 1.6B | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 1.0B | 431.6M | 737.9M | 766.6M | 881.6M | 925.7M | |
| Change To Inventory | 125.5M | (331.0M) | (104.2M) | (138.7M) | (124.8M) | (131.1M) | |
| Change Receivables | (20.6M) | (53.8M) | (40.6M) | 34.3M | 30.8M | 32.4M | |
| Change To Netincome | 11.4M | 351.0M | 303.2M | 22.3M | 25.7M | 24.4M | |
| Investments | 104.3M | (4.3M) | (314.6M) | (441.4M) | (397.3M) | (377.4M) |
Ulta Beauty Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ulta Beauty or Specialty Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ulta Beauty's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ulta stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Ulta Beauty Volatility Alert
Ulta Beauty currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.01 and Jensen Alpha of 0.01. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ulta Beauty's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ulta Beauty's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Ulta Beauty Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Ulta Beauty's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Ulta Beauty's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Ulta Beauty and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Ulta Beauty or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Ulta Beauty's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ulta Beauty by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Ulta Beauty to competition |
| Fundamentals | Ulta Beauty | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.55 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.17 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.11 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.13 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 18.84 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 46.37 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.39 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 93.35 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 2.6 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 20.61 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 7.25 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.49 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 11.21 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 4.83 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.94 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 1.29 B | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 434.23 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 8.48 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.91 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 1.05 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.63 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 50.01 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.48 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.36 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 24.98 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.40 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 456.56 | |
| Number Of Employees | 20 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.28 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 16.87 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 5.71 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 1.29 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 1.18 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 100 shares by Halligan Catherine Ann of Ulta Beauty at 0.08 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Ulta Beauty Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Ulta . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Ulta Beauty Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Ulta Beauty? Buying financial instruments such as Ulta Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out Ulta Beauty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For information on how to trade Ulta Stock refer to our How to Trade Ulta Stock guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ulta Beauty. If investors know Ulta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ulta Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.014 | Earnings Share 24.98 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.017 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Ulta Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ulta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ulta Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ulta Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ulta Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ulta Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ulta Beauty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ulta Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.