Modivcare Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation

MODV Stock  USD 3.30  0.73  18.11%   
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding ModivCare is 'Cautious Hold'. A buy or sell recommendation is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell ModivCare given historical horizon and risk tolerance. When we issue a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for ModivCare, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
  
Check out ModivCare Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool.
For more information on how to buy ModivCare Stock please use our How to Invest in ModivCare guide.
Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as ModivCare and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. ModivCare. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.

Execute ModivCare Buy or Sell Advice

The ModivCare recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on ModivCare. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in ModivCare or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute ModivCare's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Execute Advice
Sell ModivCareBuy ModivCare
Cautious Hold

Market Performance

Very WeakDetails

Volatility

UnstableDetails

Hype Condition

Over hypedDetails

Current Valuation

UndervaluedDetails

Odds Of Distress

Above AverageDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Hyperactively responds to market trendsDetails

Investor Sentiment

ImpartialDetails

Analyst Consensus

BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

PoorDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Unlikely ManipulatorDetails
For the selected time horizon ModivCare has a Mean Deviation of 6.44, Standard Deviation of 9.75 and Variance of 94.99
We provide investment recommendation to complement the last-minute expert consensus on ModivCare. Our dynamic recommendation engine harnesses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the entity's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure ModivCare is not overpriced, please verify all ModivCare fundamentals, including its cash per share, number of employees, and the relationship between the revenue and cash flow from operations . Given that ModivCare has a number of shares shorted of 1.82 M, we recommend you to check ModivCare market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your last-minute risk tolerance and investing horizon.

ModivCare Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

ModivCare generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
ModivCare has high historical volatility and very poor performance
ModivCare has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
ModivCare currently holds 1.14 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.88, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. ModivCare has a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about ModivCare's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 2.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (204.46 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 432.54 M.
ModivCare currently holds about 72.7 M in cash with (82.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.14, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
ModivCare has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 83.0% of ModivCare shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from patch.com: Person Hit By Train In Providence

ModivCare Returns Distribution Density

The distribution of ModivCare's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of ModivCare's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of ModivCare daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use ModivCare price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of ModivCare returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for ModivCare.
Mean Return
-1.95
Value At Risk
-13.98
Potential Upside
13.41
Standard Deviation
9.75
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of ModivCare historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.

ModivCare Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument, such as ModivCare, soars without any apparent reason? This usually happens because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ModivCare back and forth among themselves.
Shares
Geode Capital Management, Llc2024-12-31
262.9 K
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.2024-12-31
254.5 K
Renaissance Technologies Corp2024-12-31
191.5 K
Goldman Sachs Group Inc2024-12-31
163.1 K
K2 Principal Fund Lp2024-09-30
158.8 K
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2024-12-31
153.1 K
Bank Of America Corp2024-12-31
148 K
Franklin Resources Inc2024-12-31
130.4 K
Northern Trust Corp2024-12-31
116.9 K
Coliseum Capital Management Llc2024-12-31
M
Neuberger Berman Group Llc2024-12-31
2.1 M
Note, although ModivCare's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

ModivCare Cash Flow Accounts

202020212022202320242025 (projected)
Capital Expenditures12.2M21.3M33.0M42.3M48.6M51.1M
Net Income88.8M(6.6M)(31.8M)(204.5M)(184.0M)(174.8M)
End Period Cash Flow183.4M133.4M15.0M2.8M3.2M3.0M
Change In Cash121.7M(49.9M)(118.4M)(12.2M)(11.0M)(10.4M)
Free Cash Flow336.3M165.5M(43.4M)(125.3M)(144.0M)(136.8M)
Depreciation26.2M57.0M100.4M116.6M134.1M140.8M
Other Non Cash Items(2.2M)64.9M57.7M171.6M197.3M207.1M
Dividends Paid4.4M2.0M3.2M899K809.1K768.6K
Change To Inventory17.2M38.2M(55.9M)11.5M10.3M9.8M
Investments(635.0M)(685.6M)(111.8M)(38.6M)(34.7M)(36.4M)
Change Receivables(29.9M)55.9M(11.5M)(55.8M)(50.2M)(47.7M)
Change To Netincome39.2M3.5M53.1M11.1M12.8M13.4M

ModivCare Greeks

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to ModivCare or Health Care Providers & Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that ModivCare's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a ModivCare stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-1.9
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.71
σ
Overall volatility
10.16
Ir
Information ratio -0.2

ModivCare Volatility Alert

ModivCare is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure ModivCare's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact ModivCare's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.

ModivCare Fundamentals Vs Peers

Comparing ModivCare's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze ModivCare's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between ModivCare and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as ModivCare or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of ModivCare's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ModivCare by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare ModivCare to competition
FundamentalsModivCarePeer Average
Return On Equity-2.58-0.31
Return On Asset0.0086-0.14
Profit Margin(0.07) %(1.27) %
Operating Margin0.01 %(5.51) %
Current Valuation1.27 B16.62 B
Shares Outstanding14.29 M571.82 M
Shares Owned By Insiders16.50 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions83.50 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted1.82 M4.71 M
Price To Earning52.70 X28.72 X
Price To Book19.01 X9.51 X
Price To Sales0.02 X11.42 X
Revenue2.75 B9.43 B
Gross Profit432.54 M27.38 B
EBITDA(23.33 M)3.9 B
Net Income(204.46 M)570.98 M
Cash And Equivalents72.7 M2.7 B
Cash Per Share5.14 X5.01 X
Total Debt1.14 B5.32 B
Debt To Equity2.88 %48.70 %
Current Ratio0.71 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share(1.19) X1.93 K
Cash Flow From Operations(82.97 M)971.22 M
Short Ratio2.27 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share(12.87) X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth2.68 X4.89 X
Target Price12.85
Number Of Employees21.2 K18.84 K
Beta0.56-0.15
Market Capitalization47.17 M19.03 B
Total Asset1.77 B29.47 B
Retained Earnings(24.44 M)9.33 B
Working Capital(115.48 M)1.48 B
Note: Insider Trading [view details]

ModivCare Market Momentum

Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as ModivCare . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.

About ModivCare Buy or Sell Advice

When is the right time to buy or sell ModivCare? Buying financial instruments such as ModivCare Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.

Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios

In addition to having ModivCare in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did You Try This Idea?

Run Health Management Thematic Idea Now

Health Management
Health Management Theme
Major hospitals and healthcare providers. The Health Management theme has 38 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Health Management Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Additional Tools for ModivCare Stock Analysis

When running ModivCare's price analysis, check to measure ModivCare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ModivCare is operating at the current time. Most of ModivCare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ModivCare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ModivCare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ModivCare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.