Fibrogen Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| FGEN Stock | USD 0.44 0.01 2.33% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding FibroGen is 'Cautious Hold'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of FibroGen's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out FibroGen Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in FibroGen Stock, please use our How to Invest in FibroGen guide. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as FibroGen and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards FibroGen. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in income.
FibroGen |
Execute FibroGen Buy or Sell Advice
The FibroGen recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on FibroGen. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in FibroGen or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute FibroGen's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Sell
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Dangerous | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | High | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Hold | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
FibroGen Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| FibroGen is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| FibroGen has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| FibroGen appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| FibroGen has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 147.75 M. Net Loss for the year was (284.23 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (15.16 M). | |
| FibroGen currently holds about 438.13 M in cash with (315.02 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.67, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Akebia Therapeutics Reports Q4 Loss, Tops Revenue Estimates |
FibroGen current analysts advice
We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. FibroGen analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. FibroGen analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
The consensus estimates and target price estimation comprises individual analyst assessments, and may or may not mutch the Macroaxis buy or sell advice. It is determined by taking an average of all analyst recommendations and classifying them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, or Sell.
FibroGen Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of FibroGen's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of FibroGen's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of FibroGen daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use FibroGen price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of FibroGen returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for FibroGen.
| Mean Return | 0.46 | Value At Risk | -13.04 | Potential Upside | 16.00 | Standard Deviation | 9.08 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of FibroGen historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
FibroGen Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument, such as FibroGen, soars without any apparent reason. This usually happens because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FibroGen back and forth among themselves. Companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in this term and can influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Two Sigma Investments Llc | 2024-12-31 | 604.4 K | Fmr Inc | 2024-12-31 | 414.6 K | Squarepoint Ops Llc | 2024-12-31 | 386.8 K | Assenagon Asset Management Sa | 2024-12-31 | 351.9 K | State Street Corp | 2024-12-31 | 343.1 K | Franklin Street Advisors Inc. | 2024-12-31 | 200 K | Ubs Group Ag | 2024-12-31 | 196.6 K | Vantage Consulting Group Inc. | 2024-12-31 | 195.7 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-12-31 | 177.7 K | Armistice Capital, Llc | 2024-12-31 | 6.8 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 5.9 M |
FibroGen Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (9.2M) | (14.2M) | (11.0M) | (1.7M) | (1.5M) | (1.4M) | |
| Change In Cash | 552.1M | (507.2M) | (15.5M) | (42.0M) | (37.8M) | (35.9M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 77.6M | (112.4M) | (184.7M) | (317.5M) | (285.8M) | (271.5M) | |
| Depreciation | 22.0M | 14.8M | 10.6M | 9.9M | 11.4M | 10.9M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 1.5M | 61.7M | 1.1M | 28.2M | 32.4M | 34.1M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 4.0M | 30.2M | 38.7M | 2.5M | 2.9M | 2.8M | |
| Net Income | (189.3M) | (290.0M) | (293.7M) | (284.2M) | (255.8M) | (243.0M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 678.4M | 171.2M | 155.7M | 113.7M | 130.7M | 239.8M | |
| Investments | 467.5M | (396.8M) | 89.1M | 144.5M | 166.2M | 97.6M | |
| Change To Netincome | 66.2M | 73.9M | 132.9M | 66.7M | 76.7M | 62.0M | |
| Change Receivables | (55.2M) | 35.2M | (12.0M) | 25.2M | 29.0M | 30.4M | |
| Dividends Paid | 11.5M | 7.4M | 5.2M | 2.3M | 2.6M | 2.5M |
FibroGen Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to FibroGen or Biotechnology sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that FibroGen's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a FibroGen stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.63 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
FibroGen Volatility Alert
FibroGen is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. FibroGen is a potential penny stock. Although FibroGen may be in fact a good instrument to invest, many penny stocks are speculative in nature and are subject to artificial price hype. Please make sure you totally understand the upside potential and downside risk of investing in FibroGen. We encourage investors to look for signals such as email spams, message board hypes, claims of breakthroughs, volume upswings, sudden news releases, promotions that are not reported, or demotions released before SEC filings. Please also check biographies and work history of current and past company officers before investing in high volatility instruments, penny stocks, or equities with microcap classification. You can indeed make money on FibroGen instrument if you perfectly time your entry and exit. However, remember that penny stocks that have been the subject of artificial hype usually unable to maintain their increased share price for more than just a few days. The price of a promoted high volatility instrument will almost always revert back. The only way to increase shareholder value is through legitimate performance backed up by solid fundamentals.FibroGen Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing FibroGen's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze FibroGen's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between FibroGen and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as FibroGen or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of FibroGen's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FibroGen by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare FibroGen to competition |
| Fundamentals | FibroGen | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -10.16 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.21 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.68) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.04 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | (8.63 M) | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 100.77 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.89 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 36.94 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 2.95 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 97.67 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 53.83 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.24 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 147.75 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | (15.16 M) | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (261.4 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (284.23 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 438.13 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 4.67 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 170.46 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.89 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 2.17 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | (2.42) X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (315.02 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 0.77 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (1.23) X | 3.12 X |
| Target Price | 10.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 486 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.83 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 43.04 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 423.53 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (1.84 B) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 113.89 M | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 200.56 M | 9.34 B |
Note: Disposition of 2325 shares by David DeLucia of FibroGen at 0. subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
FibroGen Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as FibroGen . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 128182.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.44 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.44 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
About FibroGen Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell FibroGen? Buying financial instruments such as FibroGen Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having FibroGen in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Large Blend Funds Thematic Idea Now
Large Blend Funds
Fund or Etfs that invest in stocks of large organizations that have characteristics of both growth and value companies. The Large Blend Funds theme has 46 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Large Blend Funds Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out FibroGen Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in FibroGen Stock, please use our How to Invest in FibroGen guide.You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FibroGen. If investors know FibroGen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FibroGen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.536 | Earnings Share (1.23) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.154 | Return On Assets |
The market value of FibroGen is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FibroGen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FibroGen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FibroGen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FibroGen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FibroGen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FibroGen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FibroGen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FibroGen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.