Appfolio Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| APPF Stock | USD 213.23 2.01 0.95% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your conservative risk appetite, our recommendation regarding Appfolio is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Appfolio buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Appfolio positions.
Check out Appfolio Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more detail on how to invest in Appfolio Stock please use our How to Invest in Appfolio guide. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Appfolio and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Appfolio. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.
Appfolio |
Execute Appfolio Buy or Sell Advice
The Appfolio recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Appfolio. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Appfolio or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Appfolio's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost mirrors the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Appfolio Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Appfolio generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Appfolio is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Disposition of 121 shares by Matthew Mazza of Appfolio at 223.08 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Appfolio Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Appfolio's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Appfolio's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Appfolio daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Appfolio price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Appfolio returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Appfolio.
| Mean Return | -0.1 | Value At Risk | -3.87 | Potential Upside | 2.48 | Standard Deviation | 2.05 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Appfolio historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Appfolio Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Df Dent & Co Inc | 2024-09-30 | 351.7 K | Amvescap Plc. | 2024-12-31 | 340.6 K | Jpmorgan Chase & Co | 2024-09-30 | 322.6 K | Macquarie Group Ltd | 2024-12-31 | 320.4 K | Norges Bank | 2024-12-31 | 275.8 K | Renaissance Technologies Corp | 2024-12-31 | 249.9 K | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2024-12-31 | 249.7 K | Franklin Resources Inc | 2024-12-31 | 248.8 K | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2024-12-31 | 207.1 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 2.5 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-12-31 | 2.4 M |
Appfolio Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 47K | 521K | 12.1M | (582K) | (669.3K) | (635.8K) | |
| Change In Cash | 124.5M | (82.4M) | 12.7M | (21.3M) | (7.0M) | (6.7M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 3.2M | 2.7M | 4.1M | 51.2M | 186.1M | 195.5M | |
| Depreciation | 30.5M | 32.2M | 34.0M | 28.6M | 19.8M | 20.3M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (187.5M) | (12.9M) | 18.0M | (7.9M) | (8.2M) | (8.6M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 45.1M | 32.7M | 21.2M | 9.0M | 2.0M | 1.9M | |
| Net Income | 158.4M | 1.0M | (68.1M) | 2.7M | 204.1M | 214.3M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 140.7M | 58.3M | 71.0M | 49.8M | 42.8M | 46.6M | |
| Investments | 164K | (78.1M) | (6.5M) | (23.7M) | (151.8M) | (144.2M) | |
| Change To Netincome | (24.1M) | (149.5M) | 4.5M | 60.3M | 54.3M | 57.0M | |
| Change Receivables | (2.0M) | (2.8M) | (2.1M) | (4.2M) | (3.8M) | (3.6M) |
Appfolio Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Appfolio or Software sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Appfolio's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Appfolio stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Appfolio Volatility Alert
Appfolio exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.94 and kurtosis of 1.8. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Appfolio's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Appfolio's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Appfolio Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Appfolio's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Appfolio's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Appfolio and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Appfolio or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Appfolio's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Appfolio by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Appfolio to competition |
| Fundamentals | Appfolio | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.5 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.16 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.26 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.11 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 7.45 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 23.24 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 4.36 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 82.88 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 707.85 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 26.83 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 14.81 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 9.68 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 794.2 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 512.14 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 169.87 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 204.07 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 139.25 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 3.96 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 37.48 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.21 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.06 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 14.27 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 188.16 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.57 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 5.56 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 5.30 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 279.19 | |
| Number Of Employees | 1.63 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.87 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 7.69 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 626.68 M | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 290.05 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 272.12 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 3501 shares by William Trigg of Appfolio at 217.27 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Appfolio Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Appfolio . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Appfolio Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Appfolio? Buying financial instruments such as Appfolio Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Appfolio in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Oil And Gas Thematic Idea Now
Oil And Gas
Companies involved in drilling, production, and distribution of oil and gas pipelines. The Oil And Gas theme has 26 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Oil And Gas Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Appfolio Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more detail on how to invest in Appfolio Stock please use our How to Invest in Appfolio guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Appfolio. If investors know Appfolio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Appfolio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.373 | Earnings Share 5.56 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.185 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Appfolio is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Appfolio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Appfolio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Appfolio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Appfolio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Appfolio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Appfolio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Appfolio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Appfolio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.