Exagen Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.78
| XGN Stock | USD 4.10 0.18 4.21% |
Exagen |
Exagen Target Price Odds to finish below 5.78
The tendency of Exagen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 5.78 after 90 days |
| 4.10 | 90 days | 5.78 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Exagen to stay under $ 5.78 after 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Exagen Inc probability density function shows the probability of Exagen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Exagen Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 4.10 and $ 5.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.43 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Exagen Inc has a beta of -0.11. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Exagen are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Exagen Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Exagen Inc has an alpha of 0.5845, implying that it can generate a 0.58 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Exagen Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Exagen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exagen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Exagen Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Exagen is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Exagen's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Exagen Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Exagen within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.58 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Exagen Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Exagen for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Exagen Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Exagen Inc is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Exagen Inc appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Exagen Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 52.55 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (23.69 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 21.35 M. | |
| Exagen Inc has about 76.39 M in cash with (14.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.7, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Exagen Inc has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 57.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Exagen Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Exagen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Exagen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exagen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 36.5 M |
Exagen Technical Analysis
Exagen's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Exagen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Exagen Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Exagen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Exagen Predictive Forecast Models
Exagen's time-series forecasting models is one of many Exagen's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Exagen's historical data is usually called time series.