Western Assets Emerging Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 10.79
| XEMDX Fund | USD 10.79 0.03 0.28% |
Western |
Western Assets Target Price Odds to finish over 10.79
The tendency of Western Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 10.79 | 90 days | 10.79 | about 34.67 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Western Assets to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 34.67 (This Western Assets Emerging probability density function shows the probability of Western Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Western Assets has a beta of 0.0523. This entails as returns on the market go up, Western Assets average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Western Assets Emerging will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Western Assets Emerging has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Western Assets Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Western Assets
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Western Assets Emerging. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Western Assets' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Western Assets Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Western Assets is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Western Assets' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Western Assets Emerging, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Western Assets within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0006 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.38 |
Western Assets Technical Analysis
Western Assets' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Western Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Western Assets Emerging. In general, you should focus on analyzing Western Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Western Assets Predictive Forecast Models
Western Assets' time-series forecasting models is one of many Western Assets' mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Western Assets' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Western Assets in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Western Assets' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Western Assets options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Western Mutual Fund
Western Assets financial ratios help investors to determine whether Western Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Western with respect to the benefits of owning Western Assets security.
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