Verrica Pharmaceuticals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.76

VRCA Stock  USD 0.76  0.04  5.00%   
Verrica Pharmaceuticals' future price is the expected price of Verrica Pharmaceuticals instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Verrica Pharmaceuticals performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Verrica Pharmaceuticals Backtesting, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Valuation, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Correlation, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Hype Analysis, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Volatility, Verrica Pharmaceuticals History as well as Verrica Pharmaceuticals Performance.
For information on how to trade Verrica Stock refer to our How to Trade Verrica Stock guide.
  
At present, Verrica Pharmaceuticals' Price To Sales Ratio is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Book Value Ratio is expected to grow to 17.63, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is forecasted to decline to (5.20). Please specify Verrica Pharmaceuticals' target price for which you would like Verrica Pharmaceuticals odds to be computed.

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish below 0.76

The tendency of Verrica Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move below current price in 90 days
 0.76 90 days 0.76 
about 6.66
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Verrica Pharmaceuticals to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 6.66 (This Verrica Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of Verrica Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Verrica Pharmaceuticals has a beta of 0.7. This entails as returns on the market go up, Verrica Pharmaceuticals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Verrica Pharmaceuticals will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Verrica Pharmaceuticals has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Verrica Pharmaceuticals Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Verrica Pharmaceuticals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Verrica Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Verrica Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.040.7610.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.193.7313.41
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.010.3310.01
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
11.5312.6714.06
Details

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Verrica Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Verrica Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Verrica Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Verrica Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.98
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.70
σ
Overall volatility
0.36
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Verrica Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Verrica Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Verrica Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Verrica Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Verrica Pharmaceuticals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Verrica Pharmaceuticals has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 5.12 M. Net Loss for the year was (67 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.31 M.
Verrica Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 14.4 M in cash with (38.58 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.35.
Verrica Pharmaceuticals has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. Sees Significant Drop in Short Interest

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Verrica Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Verrica Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Verrica Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding45.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments69.5 M

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Verrica Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Verrica Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Verrica Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Verrica Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models

Verrica Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Verrica Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Verrica Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Verrica Pharmaceuticals

Checking the ongoing alerts about Verrica Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Verrica Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Verrica Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Verrica Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Verrica Pharmaceuticals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Verrica Pharmaceuticals has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 5.12 M. Net Loss for the year was (67 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.31 M.
Verrica Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 14.4 M in cash with (38.58 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.35.
Verrica Pharmaceuticals has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 44.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. Sees Significant Drop in Short Interest
When determining whether Verrica Pharmaceuticals offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Verrica Pharmaceuticals' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Verrica Pharmaceuticals Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Verrica Pharmaceuticals Stock:
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Verrica Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Verrica will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Verrica Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.84)
Revenue Per Share
0.198
Quarterly Revenue Growth
27.445
Return On Assets
(0.71)
Return On Equity
(20.60)
The market value of Verrica Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Verrica that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Verrica Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Verrica Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Verrica Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Verrica Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Verrica Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Verrica Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Verrica Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.