Volkswagen (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 86.55
| VOW Stock | 89.45 2.15 2.35% |
Volkswagen |
Volkswagen Target Price Odds to finish below 86.55
The tendency of Volkswagen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 86.55 or more in 90 days |
| 89.45 | 90 days | 86.55 | about 20.06 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Volkswagen to drop to 86.55 or more in 90 days from now is about 20.06 (This Volkswagen AG probability density function shows the probability of Volkswagen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Volkswagen AG price to stay between 86.55 and its current price of 89.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.7 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Volkswagen has a beta of 0.11. This entails as returns on the market go up, Volkswagen average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Volkswagen AG will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Volkswagen AG has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Volkswagen Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Volkswagen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Volkswagen AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Volkswagen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Volkswagen Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Volkswagen is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Volkswagen's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Volkswagen AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Volkswagen within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Volkswagen Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Volkswagen for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Volkswagen AG can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Volkswagen AG generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 73.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Volkswagen Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Volkswagen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Volkswagen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Volkswagen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 501.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 66.9 B |
Volkswagen Technical Analysis
Volkswagen's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Volkswagen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Volkswagen AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing Volkswagen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Volkswagen Predictive Forecast Models
Volkswagen's time-series forecasting models is one of many Volkswagen's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Volkswagen's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Volkswagen AG
Checking the ongoing alerts about Volkswagen for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Volkswagen AG help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Volkswagen AG generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 73.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Additional Tools for Volkswagen Stock Analysis
When running Volkswagen's price analysis, check to measure Volkswagen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Volkswagen is operating at the current time. Most of Volkswagen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Volkswagen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Volkswagen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Volkswagen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.