Vista Oil (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 339.36
| VISTAA Stock | MXN 1,170 4.44 0.38% |
Vista |
Vista Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 339.36
The tendency of Vista Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 339.36 or more in 90 days |
| 1,170 | 90 days | 339.36 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vista Oil to drop to 339.36 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Vista Oil Gas probability density function shows the probability of Vista Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vista Oil Gas price to stay between 339.36 and its current price of 1169.68 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Vista Oil Gas has a beta of -0.41. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Vista Oil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Vista Oil Gas is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vista Oil Gas has an alpha of 0.4019, implying that it can generate a 0.4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vista Oil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vista Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vista Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vista Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vista Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vista Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vista Oil Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vista Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.40 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 84.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Vista Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vista Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vista Oil Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vista Oil Gas had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company has 447.75 Million in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing |
Vista Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vista Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vista Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vista Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 88.6 M |
Vista Oil Technical Analysis
Vista Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vista Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vista Oil Gas. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vista Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vista Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Vista Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vista Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vista Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vista Oil Gas
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vista Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vista Oil Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vista Oil Gas had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company has 447.75 Million in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Vista Stock
When determining whether Vista Oil Gas is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Vista Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Vista Oil Gas Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Vista Oil Gas Stock:Check out Vista Oil Backtesting, Vista Oil Valuation, Vista Oil Correlation, Vista Oil Hype Analysis, Vista Oil Volatility, Vista Oil History as well as Vista Oil Performance. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.