UNITED UTILITIES (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.09

UUEC Stock  EUR 13.40  0.10  0.74%   
UNITED UTILITIES's future price is the expected price of UNITED UTILITIES instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of UNITED UTILITIES GR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out UNITED UTILITIES Backtesting, UNITED UTILITIES Valuation, UNITED UTILITIES Correlation, UNITED UTILITIES Hype Analysis, UNITED UTILITIES Volatility, UNITED UTILITIES History as well as UNITED UTILITIES Performance.
  
Please specify UNITED UTILITIES's target price for which you would like UNITED UTILITIES odds to be computed.

UNITED UTILITIES Target Price Odds to finish below 8.09

The tendency of UNITED Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to € 8.09  or more in 90 days
 13.40 90 days 8.09 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UNITED UTILITIES to drop to € 8.09  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This UNITED UTILITIES GR probability density function shows the probability of UNITED Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UNITED UTILITIES price to stay between € 8.09  and its current price of €13.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon UNITED UTILITIES has a beta of 0.26. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, UNITED UTILITIES average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding UNITED UTILITIES GR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally UNITED UTILITIES GR has an alpha of 0.1618, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   UNITED UTILITIES Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for UNITED UTILITIES

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UNITED UTILITIES. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.1613.4014.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.7713.0114.25
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
12.3713.6014.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
12.8813.1613.43
Details

UNITED UTILITIES Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UNITED UTILITIES is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UNITED UTILITIES's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UNITED UTILITIES GR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UNITED UTILITIES within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.16
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.26
σ
Overall volatility
0.44
Ir
Information ratio 0.05

UNITED UTILITIES Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UNITED Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UNITED UTILITIES's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UNITED UTILITIES's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding681.9 M
Dividend Yield0.0433

UNITED UTILITIES Technical Analysis

UNITED UTILITIES's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UNITED Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UNITED UTILITIES GR. In general, you should focus on analyzing UNITED Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

UNITED UTILITIES Predictive Forecast Models

UNITED UTILITIES's time-series forecasting models is one of many UNITED UTILITIES's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UNITED UTILITIES's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards UNITED UTILITIES in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, UNITED UTILITIES's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from UNITED UTILITIES options trading.

Additional Tools for UNITED Stock Analysis

When running UNITED UTILITIES's price analysis, check to measure UNITED UTILITIES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UNITED UTILITIES is operating at the current time. Most of UNITED UTILITIES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UNITED UTILITIES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UNITED UTILITIES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UNITED UTILITIES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.