VNT 295 01 APR 31 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 85.80

928881AF8   84.96  2.63  3.00%   
928881AF8's future price is the expected price of 928881AF8 instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of VNT 295 01 APR 31 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out 928881AF8 Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, 928881AF8 Correlation, 928881AF8 Hype Analysis, 928881AF8 Volatility, 928881AF8 History as well as 928881AF8 Performance.
  
Please specify 928881AF8's target price for which you would like 928881AF8 odds to be computed.

928881AF8 Target Price Odds to finish below 85.80

The tendency of 928881AF8 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under  85.80  after 90 days
 84.96 90 days 85.80 
about 50.07
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 928881AF8 to stay under  85.80  after 90 days from now is about 50.07 (This VNT 295 01 APR 31 probability density function shows the probability of 928881AF8 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VNT 295 01 price to stay between its current price of  84.96  and  85.80  at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.11 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon VNT 295 01 APR 31 has a beta of -0.49. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 928881AF8 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, VNT 295 01 APR 31 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally VNT 295 01 APR 31 has an alpha of 0.0519, implying that it can generate a 0.0519 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   928881AF8 Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for 928881AF8

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VNT 295 01. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
84.4084.9685.52
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
68.8869.4493.46
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
82.6483.2083.75
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
76.9181.9086.89
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 928881AF8. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 928881AF8's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 928881AF8's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in VNT 295 01.

928881AF8 Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 928881AF8 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 928881AF8's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VNT 295 01 APR 31, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 928881AF8 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.05
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.49
σ
Overall volatility
2.98
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

928881AF8 Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 928881AF8 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for VNT 295 01 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
VNT 295 01 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

928881AF8 Technical Analysis

928881AF8's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 928881AF8 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VNT 295 01 APR 31. In general, you should focus on analyzing 928881AF8 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

928881AF8 Predictive Forecast Models

928881AF8's time-series forecasting models is one of many 928881AF8's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 928881AF8's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about VNT 295 01

Checking the ongoing alerts about 928881AF8 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for VNT 295 01 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
VNT 295 01 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Other Information on Investing in 928881AF8 Bond

928881AF8 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 928881AF8 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 928881AF8 with respect to the benefits of owning 928881AF8 security.