PHILLIPS 66 5875 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 104.31
| 718546AH7 | 109.10 5.91 5.73% |
718546AH7 |
718546AH7 Target Price Odds to finish below 104.31
The tendency of 718546AH7 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 104.31 or more in 90 days |
| 109.10 | 90 days | 104.31 | about 49.17 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 718546AH7 to drop to 104.31 or more in 90 days from now is about 49.17 (This PHILLIPS 66 5875 probability density function shows the probability of 718546AH7 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PHILLIPS 66 5875 price to stay between 104.31 and its current price of 109.1 at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.4 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 718546AH7 has a beta of 0.28. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 718546AH7 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding PHILLIPS 66 5875 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally PHILLIPS 66 5875 has an alpha of 0.0083, implying that it can generate a 0.008265 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 718546AH7 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 718546AH7
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PHILLIPS 66 5875. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.718546AH7 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 718546AH7 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 718546AH7's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PHILLIPS 66 5875, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 718546AH7 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
718546AH7 Technical Analysis
718546AH7's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 718546AH7 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PHILLIPS 66 5875. In general, you should focus on analyzing 718546AH7 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
718546AH7 Predictive Forecast Models
718546AH7's time-series forecasting models is one of many 718546AH7's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 718546AH7's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 718546AH7 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 718546AH7's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 718546AH7 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 718546AH7 Bond
718546AH7 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 718546AH7 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 718546AH7 with respect to the benefits of owning 718546AH7 security.