NBCUNIVERSAL MEDIA LLC Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 99.24
| 63946BAG5 | 104.27 2.14 2.10% |
NBCUNIVERSAL |
NBCUNIVERSAL Target Price Odds to finish below 99.24
The tendency of NBCUNIVERSAL Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 99.24 or more in 90 days |
| 104.27 | 90 days | 99.24 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NBCUNIVERSAL to drop to 99.24 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This NBCUNIVERSAL MEDIA LLC probability density function shows the probability of NBCUNIVERSAL Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NBCUNIVERSAL MEDIA LLC price to stay between 99.24 and its current price of 104.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.65 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NBCUNIVERSAL MEDIA LLC has a beta of -0.0115. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NBCUNIVERSAL are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NBCUNIVERSAL MEDIA LLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NBCUNIVERSAL MEDIA LLC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. NBCUNIVERSAL Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for NBCUNIVERSAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NBCUNIVERSAL MEDIA LLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NBCUNIVERSAL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NBCUNIVERSAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NBCUNIVERSAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NBCUNIVERSAL MEDIA LLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NBCUNIVERSAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
NBCUNIVERSAL Technical Analysis
NBCUNIVERSAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NBCUNIVERSAL Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NBCUNIVERSAL MEDIA LLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing NBCUNIVERSAL Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NBCUNIVERSAL Predictive Forecast Models
NBCUNIVERSAL's time-series forecasting models is one of many NBCUNIVERSAL's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NBCUNIVERSAL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NBCUNIVERSAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NBCUNIVERSAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NBCUNIVERSAL options trading.
Other Information on Investing in NBCUNIVERSAL Bond
NBCUNIVERSAL financial ratios help investors to determine whether NBCUNIVERSAL Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NBCUNIVERSAL with respect to the benefits of owning NBCUNIVERSAL security.