LYB 38 01 OCT 60 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 70.39
| 50249AAK9 | 69.42 0.67 0.97% |
50249AAK9 |
50249AAK9 Target Price Odds to finish below 70.39
The tendency of 50249AAK9 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 70.39 after 90 days |
| 69.42 | 90 days | 70.39 | about 33.82 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 50249AAK9 to stay under 70.39 after 90 days from now is about 33.82 (This LYB 38 01 OCT 60 probability density function shows the probability of 50249AAK9 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LYB 38 01 price to stay between its current price of 69.42 and 70.39 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.22 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 50249AAK9 has a beta of 0.0154. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 50249AAK9 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding LYB 38 01 OCT 60 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally LYB 38 01 OCT 60 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 50249AAK9 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 50249AAK9
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LYB 38 01. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.50249AAK9 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 50249AAK9 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 50249AAK9's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LYB 38 01 OCT 60, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 50249AAK9 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
50249AAK9 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 50249AAK9 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LYB 38 01 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| LYB 38 01 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Oilfield Chemicals Market to Witness Stunning Growth 2024-2031 With BASF SE, Clariant, Stepan Company |
50249AAK9 Technical Analysis
50249AAK9's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 50249AAK9 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LYB 38 01 OCT 60. In general, you should focus on analyzing 50249AAK9 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
50249AAK9 Predictive Forecast Models
50249AAK9's time-series forecasting models is one of many 50249AAK9's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 50249AAK9's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about LYB 38 01
Checking the ongoing alerts about 50249AAK9 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LYB 38 01 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| LYB 38 01 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Oilfield Chemicals Market to Witness Stunning Growth 2024-2031 With BASF SE, Clariant, Stepan Company |
Other Information on Investing in 50249AAK9 Bond
50249AAK9 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 50249AAK9 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 50249AAK9 with respect to the benefits of owning 50249AAK9 security.