ITC HLDGS P Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 90.07
| 465685AH8 | 87.60 0.00 0.00% |
465685AH8 |
465685AH8 Target Price Odds to finish below 90.07
The tendency of 465685AH8 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 90.07 after 90 days |
| 87.60 | 90 days | 90.07 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 465685AH8 to stay under 90.07 after 90 days from now is near 1 (This ITC HLDGS P probability density function shows the probability of 465685AH8 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ITC HLDGS P price to stay between its current price of 87.60 and 90.07 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ITC HLDGS P has a beta of -0.0935. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 465685AH8 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ITC HLDGS P is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ITC HLDGS P has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 465685AH8 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 465685AH8
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ITC HLDGS P. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.465685AH8 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 465685AH8 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 465685AH8's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ITC HLDGS P, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 465685AH8 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
465685AH8 Technical Analysis
465685AH8's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 465685AH8 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ITC HLDGS P. In general, you should focus on analyzing 465685AH8 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
465685AH8 Predictive Forecast Models
465685AH8's time-series forecasting models is one of many 465685AH8's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 465685AH8's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 465685AH8 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 465685AH8's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 465685AH8 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 465685AH8 Bond
465685AH8 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 465685AH8 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 465685AH8 with respect to the benefits of owning 465685AH8 security.