HSBC HLDGS PLC Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 105.60

404280AM1   103.61  7.41  6.67%   
404280AM1's future price is the expected price of 404280AM1 instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of HSBC HLDGS PLC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out 404280AM1 Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, 404280AM1 Correlation, 404280AM1 Hype Analysis, 404280AM1 Volatility, 404280AM1 History as well as 404280AM1 Performance.
  
Please specify 404280AM1's target price for which you would like 404280AM1 odds to be computed.

404280AM1 Target Price Odds to finish below 105.60

The tendency of 404280AM1 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under  105.60  after 90 days
 103.61 90 days 105.60 
about 14.93
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 404280AM1 to stay under  105.60  after 90 days from now is about 14.93 (This HSBC HLDGS PLC probability density function shows the probability of 404280AM1 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of HSBC HLDGS PLC price to stay between its current price of  103.61  and  105.60  at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.76 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the bond has the beta coefficient of 1.1 . This usually implies HSBC HLDGS PLC market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, 404280AM1 is expected to follow. Additionally HSBC HLDGS PLC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   404280AM1 Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for 404280AM1

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HSBC HLDGS PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
102.29103.61104.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
92.2893.60113.97
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
98.4299.74101.06
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
97.11108.41119.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 404280AM1. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 404280AM1's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 404280AM1's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in HSBC HLDGS PLC.

404280AM1 Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 404280AM1 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 404280AM1's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold HSBC HLDGS PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 404280AM1 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.1
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.10
σ
Overall volatility
5.67
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

404280AM1 Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 404280AM1 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for HSBC HLDGS PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
HSBC HLDGS PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

404280AM1 Technical Analysis

404280AM1's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 404280AM1 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of HSBC HLDGS PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing 404280AM1 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

404280AM1 Predictive Forecast Models

404280AM1's time-series forecasting models is one of many 404280AM1's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 404280AM1's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about HSBC HLDGS PLC

Checking the ongoing alerts about 404280AM1 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for HSBC HLDGS PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
HSBC HLDGS PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Other Information on Investing in 404280AM1 Bond

404280AM1 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 404280AM1 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 404280AM1 with respect to the benefits of owning 404280AM1 security.