CNA FINL P Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 96.16
| 126117AU4 | 97.01 0.12 0.12% |
126117AU4 |
126117AU4 Target Price Odds to finish below 96.16
The tendency of 126117AU4 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 96.16 or more in 90 days |
| 97.01 | 90 days | 96.16 | about 12.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 126117AU4 to drop to 96.16 or more in 90 days from now is about 12.25 (This CNA FINL P probability density function shows the probability of 126117AU4 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CNA FINL P price to stay between 96.16 and its current price of 97.01 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.04 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CNA FINL P has a beta of -0.049. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 126117AU4 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CNA FINL P is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CNA FINL P has an alpha of 0.0012, implying that it can generate a 0.001232 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 126117AU4 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 126117AU4
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CNA FINL P. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.126117AU4 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 126117AU4 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 126117AU4's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CNA FINL P, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 126117AU4 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
126117AU4 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 126117AU4 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CNA FINL P can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CNA FINL P generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
126117AU4 Technical Analysis
126117AU4's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 126117AU4 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CNA FINL P. In general, you should focus on analyzing 126117AU4 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
126117AU4 Predictive Forecast Models
126117AU4's time-series forecasting models is one of many 126117AU4's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 126117AU4's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CNA FINL P
Checking the ongoing alerts about 126117AU4 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CNA FINL P help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CNA FINL P generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in 126117AU4 Bond
126117AU4 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 126117AU4 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 126117AU4 with respect to the benefits of owning 126117AU4 security.