Ulta Beauty Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 375.24
| ULTA Stock | USD 375.25 14.78 4.10% |
Ulta |
Ulta Beauty Target Price Odds to finish below 375.24
The tendency of Ulta Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 375.24 or more in 90 days |
| 375.25 | 90 days | 375.24 | about 51.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ulta Beauty to drop to $ 375.24 or more in 90 days from now is about 51.25 (This Ulta Beauty probability density function shows the probability of Ulta Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ulta Beauty price to stay between $ 375.24 and its current price of $375.25 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ulta Beauty has a beta of 0.65. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Ulta Beauty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ulta Beauty will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ulta Beauty has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ulta Beauty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ulta Beauty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ulta Beauty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ulta Beauty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ulta Beauty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ulta Beauty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ulta Beauty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ulta Beauty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ulta Beauty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 15.67 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Ulta Beauty Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ulta Beauty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ulta Beauty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 93.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Positive Peer Results Drive Ulta Beauty Stock Surge |
Ulta Beauty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ulta Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ulta Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ulta Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 766.6 M |
Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis
Ulta Beauty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ulta Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ulta Beauty. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ulta Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ulta Beauty Predictive Forecast Models
Ulta Beauty's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ulta Beauty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ulta Beauty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ulta Beauty
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ulta Beauty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ulta Beauty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 93.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Positive Peer Results Drive Ulta Beauty Stock Surge |
Check out Ulta Beauty Backtesting, Ulta Beauty Valuation, Ulta Beauty Correlation, Ulta Beauty Hype Analysis, Ulta Beauty Volatility, Ulta Beauty History as well as Ulta Beauty Performance. For information on how to trade Ulta Stock refer to our How to Trade Ulta Stock guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ulta Beauty. If investors know Ulta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ulta Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | Earnings Share 24.91 | Revenue Per Share 234.543 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.009 | Return On Assets 0.1791 |
The market value of Ulta Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ulta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ulta Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ulta Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ulta Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ulta Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ulta Beauty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ulta Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.