TRACTOR SUPPLY (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 46.99
| TR4 Stock | 50.85 1.34 2.57% |
TRACTOR |
TRACTOR SUPPLY Target Price Odds to finish below 46.99
The tendency of TRACTOR Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 46.99 or more in 90 days |
| 50.85 | 90 days | 46.99 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TRACTOR SUPPLY to drop to 46.99 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This TRACTOR SUPPLY probability density function shows the probability of TRACTOR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TRACTOR SUPPLY price to stay between 46.99 and its current price of 50.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.15 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon TRACTOR SUPPLY has a beta of 0.93. This usually implies TRACTOR SUPPLY market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, TRACTOR SUPPLY is expected to follow. Additionally TRACTOR SUPPLY has an alpha of 0.0447, implying that it can generate a 0.0447 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). TRACTOR SUPPLY Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for TRACTOR SUPPLY
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TRACTOR SUPPLY. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TRACTOR SUPPLY's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TRACTOR SUPPLY Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TRACTOR SUPPLY is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TRACTOR SUPPLY's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TRACTOR SUPPLY, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TRACTOR SUPPLY within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.93 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
TRACTOR SUPPLY Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TRACTOR Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TRACTOR SUPPLY's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TRACTOR SUPPLY's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 113.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 239 M |
TRACTOR SUPPLY Technical Analysis
TRACTOR SUPPLY's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TRACTOR Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TRACTOR SUPPLY. In general, you should focus on analyzing TRACTOR Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TRACTOR SUPPLY Predictive Forecast Models
TRACTOR SUPPLY's time-series forecasting models is one of many TRACTOR SUPPLY's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TRACTOR SUPPLY's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards TRACTOR SUPPLY in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, TRACTOR SUPPLY's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from TRACTOR SUPPLY options trading.
Additional Tools for TRACTOR Stock Analysis
When running TRACTOR SUPPLY's price analysis, check to measure TRACTOR SUPPLY's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TRACTOR SUPPLY is operating at the current time. Most of TRACTOR SUPPLY's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TRACTOR SUPPLY's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TRACTOR SUPPLY's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TRACTOR SUPPLY to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.