Turning Point Brands Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 35.92
| TPB Stock | USD 59.84 0.18 0.30% |
Turning |
Turning Point Target Price Odds to finish below 35.92
The tendency of Turning Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 35.92 or more in 90 days |
| 59.84 | 90 days | 35.92 | roughly 2.89 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Turning Point to drop to $ 35.92 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.89 (This Turning Point Brands probability density function shows the probability of Turning Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Turning Point Brands price to stay between $ 35.92 and its current price of $59.84 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.4 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Turning Point Brands has a beta of -0.14. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Turning Point are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Turning Point Brands is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Turning Point Brands has an alpha of 0.5409, implying that it can generate a 0.54 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Turning Point Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Turning Point
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Turning Point Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Turning Point Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Turning Point is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Turning Point's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Turning Point Brands, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Turning Point within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.54 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.59 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.25 |
Turning Point Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Turning Point for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Turning Point Brands can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ALP Pre-orders Demolish Expectations as ALP Officially Launches Online |
Turning Point Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Turning Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Turning Point's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Turning Point's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 117.9 M |
Turning Point Technical Analysis
Turning Point's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Turning Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Turning Point Brands. In general, you should focus on analyzing Turning Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Turning Point Predictive Forecast Models
Turning Point's time-series forecasting models is one of many Turning Point's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Turning Point's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Turning Point Brands
Checking the ongoing alerts about Turning Point for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Turning Point Brands help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ALP Pre-orders Demolish Expectations as ALP Officially Launches Online |
Check out Turning Point Backtesting, Turning Point Valuation, Turning Point Correlation, Turning Point Hype Analysis, Turning Point Volatility, Turning Point History as well as Turning Point Performance. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Is Tobacco space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Turning Point. If investors know Turning will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Turning Point listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.178 | Dividend Share 0.275 | Earnings Share 2.49 | Revenue Per Share 23.183 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 |
The market value of Turning Point Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Turning that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Turning Point's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Turning Point's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Turning Point's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Turning Point's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Turning Point's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Turning Point is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Turning Point's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.