Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 0.33
| TNXP Stock | USD 0.34 0.03 8.11% |
Tonix |
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish over 0.33
The tendency of Tonix Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 0.33 in 90 days |
| 0.34 | 90 days | 0.33 | about 9.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tonix Pharmaceuticals to stay above $ 0.33 in 90 days from now is about 9.68 (This Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding probability density function shows the probability of Tonix Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tonix Pharmaceuticals price to stay between $ 0.33 and its current price of $0.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.6 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.65 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Tonix Pharmaceuticals will likely underperform. In addition to that Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding has an alpha of 2.6781, implying that it can generate a 2.68 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Tonix Pharmaceuticals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Tonix Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tonix Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tonix Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tonix Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tonix Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tonix Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 2.68 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Tonix Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Tonix Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Tonix Pharmaceuticals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Tonix Pharmaceuticals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Tonix Pharmaceuticals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Tonix Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 7.77 M. Net Loss for the year was (116.66 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding currently holds about 145.48 M in cash with (102 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.38, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Tonix Pharmaceuticals has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Tonix Pharmaceuticals Trading Down 2.6 percent Should You Sell |
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Tonix Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Tonix Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tonix Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 532.5 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 24.9 M |
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Tonix Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tonix Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tonix Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models
Tonix Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Tonix Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tonix Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Tonix Pharmaceuticals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Tonix Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Tonix Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Tonix Pharmaceuticals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Tonix Pharmaceuticals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Tonix Pharmaceuticals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Tonix Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 7.77 M. Net Loss for the year was (116.66 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding currently holds about 145.48 M in cash with (102 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.38, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Tonix Pharmaceuticals has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Tonix Pharmaceuticals Trading Down 2.6 percent Should You Sell |
Additional Tools for Tonix Stock Analysis
When running Tonix Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Tonix Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tonix Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Tonix Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tonix Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tonix Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tonix Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.