Service Properties Trust Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.42

SVC Stock  USD 2.81  0.02  0.71%   
Service Properties' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Service Properties Trust. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Service Properties based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Service Properties Trust over a specific time period. For example, SVC Option Call 20-12-2024 2 is a CALL option contract on Service Properties' common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2024-12-20. The contract was last traded on 2024-12-02 at 13:07:21 for $0.3 and, as of today, has 16 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at an ask price of $0.8. The implied volatility as of the 4th of December is 16.0. View All Service options

Closest to current price Service long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Service Properties' future price is the expected price of Service Properties instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Service Properties Trust performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Service Properties Backtesting, Service Properties Valuation, Service Properties Correlation, Service Properties Hype Analysis, Service Properties Volatility, Service Properties History as well as Service Properties Performance.
  
The current year's Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is expected to grow to 5.75, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is forecasted to decline to 0.71. Please specify Service Properties' target price for which you would like Service Properties odds to be computed.

Service Properties Target Price Odds to finish over 2.42

The tendency of Service Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 2.42  in 90 days
 2.81 90 days 2.42 
over 95.89
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Service Properties to stay above $ 2.42  in 90 days from now is over 95.89 (This Service Properties Trust probability density function shows the probability of Service Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Service Properties Trust price to stay between $ 2.42  and its current price of $2.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.03 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.73 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Service Properties will likely underperform. Additionally Service Properties Trust has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Service Properties Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Service Properties

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Service Properties Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Service Properties' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.142.806.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.634.638.63
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.062.756.75
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
9.5610.5011.66
Details

Service Properties Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Service Properties is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Service Properties' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Service Properties Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Service Properties within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.87
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.73
σ
Overall volatility
0.84
Ir
Information ratio -0.2

Service Properties Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Service Properties for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Service Properties Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Service Properties generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Service Properties has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Service Properties has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.87 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (32.78 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 633.73 M.
Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 14th of November 2024 Service Properties paid $ 0.01 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Disposition of 7000 shares by Lamkin William A. of Service Properties subject to Rule 16b-3

Service Properties Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Service Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Service Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Service Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding165 M
Cash And Short Term Investments180.1 M

Service Properties Technical Analysis

Service Properties' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Service Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Service Properties Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Service Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Service Properties Predictive Forecast Models

Service Properties' time-series forecasting models is one of many Service Properties' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Service Properties' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Service Properties Trust

Checking the ongoing alerts about Service Properties for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Service Properties Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Service Properties generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Service Properties has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Service Properties has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.87 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (32.78 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 633.73 M.
Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 14th of November 2024 Service Properties paid $ 0.01 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Disposition of 7000 shares by Lamkin William A. of Service Properties subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether Service Properties Trust offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Service Properties' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Service Properties Trust Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Service Properties Trust Stock:
Is Diversified REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Service Properties. If investors know Service will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Service Properties listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.66)
Dividend Share
0.61
Earnings Share
(1.47)
Revenue Per Share
11.405
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
The market value of Service Properties Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Service that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Service Properties' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Service Properties' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Service Properties' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Service Properties' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Service Properties' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Service Properties is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Service Properties' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.