Direxion Daily Sp500 Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 74.68
| SPXL Etf | USD 176.89 5.76 3.15% |
Direxion |
Direxion Daily Target Price Odds to finish below 74.68
The tendency of Direxion Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 74.68 or more in 90 days |
| 176.89 | 90 days | 74.68 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Direxion Daily to drop to $ 74.68 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Direxion Daily SP500 probability density function shows the probability of Direxion Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Direxion Daily SP500 price to stay between $ 74.68 and its current price of $176.89 at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.74 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Direxion Daily has a beta of 0.32. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Direxion Daily average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Direxion Daily SP500 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Direxion Daily SP500 has an alpha of 0.1567, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Direxion Daily Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Direxion Daily
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Direxion Daily SP500. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Direxion Daily's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Direxion Daily Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Direxion Daily is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Direxion Daily's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Direxion Daily SP500, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Direxion Daily within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.59 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Direxion Daily Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Direxion Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Direxion Daily's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Direxion Daily's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Direxion Daily Technical Analysis
Direxion Daily's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Direxion Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Direxion Daily SP500. In general, you should focus on analyzing Direxion Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Direxion Daily Predictive Forecast Models
Direxion Daily's time-series forecasting models is one of many Direxion Daily's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Direxion Daily's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Direxion Daily in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Direxion Daily's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Direxion Daily options trading.
Check out Direxion Daily Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Direxion Daily Correlation, Direxion Daily Hype Analysis, Direxion Daily Volatility, Direxion Daily History as well as Direxion Daily Performance. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
The market value of Direxion Daily SP500 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Direxion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Direxion Daily's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Direxion Daily's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Direxion Daily's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Direxion Daily's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Direxion Daily's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Direxion Daily is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Direxion Daily's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.